The latest forecast is an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the one it made in April. According to the World Bank’s East Asia and Pacific Economic Update October 2018 released Thursday, 2018 growth is expected to be robust in Thailand and Vietnam, before slowing in 2019 and 2020 as stronger domestic demand only partially offsets the moderation in net export growth. The report forecasts that Vietnam’s growth will fall to 6.6 percent in 2019 and 6.5 percent in 2020. It also warned Vietnam and other countries in the East Asia and Pacific of possible negative impacts from the rising trade tensions between the U.S. and China. The U.S. has focused its recent tariff increases on trading partners with whom it has a sizeable bilateral trade deficit, the report noted. There is a risk that if countries such as Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam supplant Chinese exports, their rising prominence in the U.S. trade profile might encourage U.S. policymakers to raise tariffs on imports … [Read more...] about World Bank ups Vietnam’s growth forecast to 6.8 pct
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World Bank forecasts 2.7 pct growth for sub-Saharan Africa in 2018
The lender said in its October 2018 issue of Africa's Pulse, the bi-annual analysis of the state of African economies, that its 2018 projection represents a slight increase from 2.3 percent in 2017. "The slower pace of the recovery in sub-Saharan Africa (0.4 percentage points lower than the April forecast) is explained by the sluggish expansion in the region's three largest economies, Nigeria, Angola, and South Africa," said the World Bank. Albert Zeufack, World Bank chief economist for Africa, said the region's economic recovery is in progress but at a slower pace than expected. Zeufact said policymakers must continue to focus on investments that foster human capital, reduce resource misallocation and boost productivity to accelerate and sustain an inclusive growth momentum. "Policymakers in the region must equip themselves to manage new risks arising from changes in the composition of capital flows and debt," he said. According to the report, global trade and industrial activity lost … [Read more...] about World Bank forecasts 2.7 pct growth for sub-Saharan Africa in 2018
Oil, metals prices set to rise amid trade tensions: World Bank
Crude oil prices are expected to jump 23 per cent this year amid strong economic growth, while metals prices are rising, hit by ongoing trade tensions, the World Bank said on Tuesday (Apr 24). The World Bank raised its forecast for oil prices to an average of US$65 a barrel this year and next, up from US$53 last year, partly due to "mounting geopolitical risk." (AFP/KAREN BLEIER) The World Bank raised its forecast for oil prices to an average of US$65 a barrel this year and next, up from US$53 last year, partly due to "mounting geopolitical risk." Metals prices are expected to increase nine per cent in 2018 and while agricultural prices are expected to gain two percent in both cases impacted by the US-China trade dispute, the report said. The World Bank cautioned that "policy actions currently under discussion, such as additional tariffs, production cuts, and sanctions, present risks to the short-term outlook." The continued global economic recovery, with growth increasing to … [Read more...] about Oil, metals prices set to rise amid trade tensions: World Bank
World Bank shareholders approve US$13 billion capital increase
US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said changes in lending policies at the World Bank will free up more resources for poorer countries. (Photo: AFP/Brendan Smialowski) World Bank President Jim Yong Kim said neither China nor any middle income countries was happy about the prospect of paying more for loans, but they agreed because of the overall increase in funds available. The agreement, which also increase shares and voting power to large emerging market countries like China, was "a tremendous vote of confidence" in the institution that came after three years of tough negotiations, Kim said. "World Bank Group bureaucrats don't often jump around and high-five and hug each other," Kim told a small group of reporters following the Spring meeting. He said the increase was needed because even with the end of the global financial crisis, the bank has been called on to provide funding to address a new series of challenges facing poor countries, like climate change, refugees, pandemics, … [Read more...] about World Bank shareholders approve US$13 billion capital increase
World Bank raises East Asia’s 2018 GDP outlook, but wary of trade war
The World Bank raised its growth forecast for East Asia and the Pacific for 2018, but warned that a possible U.S.-China trade war could harm growth in countries that are part of the Chinese goods supply chain. The Washington-based lender said in a report on Thursday it expected 2018 growth in the developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region, which includes China, to expand 6.3 percent, a notch up from 6.2 percent forecast in October. The 2018 forecast is slower than last year’s 6.6 percent growth, reflecting a slowdown in China as it continues to rebalance its economy away from investment towards domestic consumption, with policies that focus more on slowing credit expansion and improving the quality of growth, the bank said. China’s 2017 growth was a faster-than-anticipated 6.9 percent, prompting the World Bank to revise up this year’s growth projection to 6.5 percent from October’s forecast of 6.4 percent. Sudhir Shetty, the World Bank’s chief economist … [Read more...] about World Bank raises East Asia’s 2018 GDP outlook, but wary of trade war