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Among 14 free trade agreements (FTAs) Vietnam has signed, the CPTPP is a new generation FTA with high standards and the highest level of facilitation. Vietnam has been forecast to be one of the members that benefits the most from the deal.

However, the country has experienced challenges in optimizing the FTA because of its modest level of development and competitiveness.

Due to US-China trade tensions and the impact of COVID-19, the global economy fell into crisis last year with interrupted supply chains. Vietnam also suffered an economic downturn. Therefore, after two years of implementation, the benefits from the CPTPP are still to be seen.

Vu Tien Loc, President of the Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry (VCCI), said that positive results in the two years of implementation include the reform of institutions and administrative procedures.

Explaining the modest benefits so far, Loc said major reasons include the poor competitiveness of Vietnamese enterprises, market instability, and the low capacity of State agencies.

Meanwhile, Nguyen Cam Trang, Vice Director of the Import-Export Department at the Ministry of Industry and Trade, said the CPTPP has helped promote Vietnam’s exports.

However, its market share and export growth to the six partners that have implemented the CPTPP have been low.

She noted that Vietnam’s market share is 3.1 percent in Japan, 1.9 percent in Australia, 1.6 percent in New Zealand, 1.3 percent in Mexico, 1.1 percent in Canada, and 1 percent in Singapore.

Growth in exports to CPTPP markets was 12.2 percent in 2018, 13 percent in 2019, and 12.02 percent in 2020, Trang added.

She said that, in the future, State agencies should enhance their capacity to implement the CPTPP while continuing to complete legal policies, strengthen communications regarding the deal, support macro-, small-, and medium-sized enterprises to improve their capacity, encourage investment in material production, and design measures to reduce logistics costs.

Businesses should also be more active in seeking opportunities from the deal, while changing their mindset and exploring demand in CPTPP markets to design suitable business strategies and plans, she added.

A survey by VCCI showed that about three-quarters of businesses said they will adjust their business plans to optimise the opportunities from the CPTPP and other FTAs.

Source: VNA

Goldman Sachs expected exports to be Vietnam’s major driving force for economic recovery.

In 2020, Vietnam’s GDP growth is set to slow to 2.7% and rebound to 8.1% next year, according to the US-based investment bank Goldman Sachs.

Forecast for Vietnam’s GDP growth.

Goldman Sachs’ 2.7%-GDP growth forecast for Vietnam in its first ever macro-economic report on the country, one of the fastest growing economies in Asia, is lower than that of the World Bank (2.8%), but higher than ADB’s 1.8%.

While Vietnam’s economy growth slowed to 3.8% and 0.4% in the respective first and second quarters, the US bank expected GDP growth to quickly recover in the third quarter, mainly thanks to public investment, retail’s revenue and exports.

Notably, Goldman Sachs expects exports to be Vietnam’s major driving force for economic recovery. In the first eight months of 2020, Vietnam’s trade surplus reached an all-time high of US$13.5 billion, representing a 150% increase compared to the same period of last year (US$5.47 billion)

The bank’s report pointed to three major advantages contributing to a growing export turnover.

Firstly, Vietnam holds significant advantage in regional supply chains as the country is located in close proximity with China.

The labor cost in Vietnam is also considered competitive, which remains at half of China’s. For example, the minimum wage in major cities such as Hanoi or Ho Chi Minh City is regulated at US$190 per month, significantly lower than the US$360 in Shanghai. Meanwhile, the minimum wage in other cities in Vietnam and China were estimated at US$132 and US$220 per month, respectively.

According to Goldman Sachs, these factors led to a shift in production of firms in the fields of textile and footwear from China to Vietnam, especially during the US – China trade war. Since 2010, the FDI investment capital that was initially bound to China, South Korea, Japan or countries in ASEAN have now flowed to Vietnam.

Meanwhile, the fact that Vietnam is currently member of a number of free trade agreements (FTAs) with major trading partners could shield the country from growing protectionism globally. For instance in 2019, at the peak of the US – China trade tension, Vietnam’s exports had not been much impacted, which eventually led to a record trade surplus of US$11.12 billion that year.

In the future with the presence of the EU – Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA), Goldman Sachs expects Vietnam’s exports to continue growing.

Secondly, Vietnam’s structure of export products with a focus on hi-tech items would continue to be a major plus point for Vietnam. Since 2015, export turnover of products such as smart phones and electronic appliances have exceeded that of traditional items like textile or footwear.

In the January – August period, Vietnam’s export turnover of electronic products increased by 6.3% year-on-year amid the Covid-19 pandemic, accounting for 70% of total exports.

Thirdly, Vietnam’s long-standing trade partnership with China is also an advantage, as the latter would be among a handful of economies with a positive economic growth this year.

It is worth mentioning that China is currently Vietnam’s largest buyer.

In its baseline scenario, Goldman Sachs expects Vietnam’s exports to reach US$180 billion by the end of 2021, assuming the world would gradually contain the pandemic and the development of Covid-19 vaccine remains on track.

Amid global uncertainty, Vietnam continues to attract fresh FDI and remains an exception to a subdued private investment outlook of the Southeast Asian region in recent quarters.

Despite the second Covid-19 outbreak that will likely moderate the pace of third-quarter growth, Vietnam is predicted to remain the strongest growth performer this year in the Southeast Asian region with a GDP growth rate of 2.9%, thanks to effective virus containment, according to HSBC.

Source: HSBC.

In fact, the HSBC expected Vietnam would be the only country among six major economies in the region, or ASEAN-6 (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam), to record a positive economic growth, and then rebound to over 8.55% in 2021.

In contrast, the ASEAN-6 is predicted to contract 4.4% in 2020. This is ultimately a reflection of the fact that all ASEAN economies except Indonesia announced some form of hard lockdown to combat the virus, stated HSBC’s report.

The lockdowns and corresponding hit to mobility have significantly impacted private consumption, which is the largest component of growth in ASEAN. As a result, this was the main drag on growth in the first half of the year in all the economies, with investment a close second.

According to the HSBC, while the region’s private investment outlook has been subdued in recent quarters, owing in part to a moderation in FDI inflows, Vietnam has been an exception. Amid global uncertainty, the economy continues to attract fresh FDI.

A report from the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) revealed that year to August 20, 1,797 new projects have been approved with total registered capital of US$9.73 billion, up 6.6% year-on-year in capital.

The report shows that out of 106 countries and territories investing in Vietnam in the first eight months of 2020, Singapore took the lead with US$6.54 billion, followed by South Korea (US$2.97 billion), and China (US$1.75 billion).

The World Bank in late July predicted Vietnam’s economic growth at 2.8% this year, the world’s fifth-fastest-growing economy, while the government targets a growth rate in range of 3 – 4%.