Vietnam influenced by china

Goldman Sachs expected exports to be Vietnam’s major driving force for economic recovery.

In 2020, Vietnam’s GDP growth is set to slow to 2.7% and rebound to 8.1% next year, according to the US-based investment bank Goldman Sachs.

Forecast for Vietnam’s GDP growth.

Goldman Sachs’ 2.7%-GDP growth forecast for Vietnam in its first ever macro-economic report on the country, one of the fastest growing economies in Asia, is lower than that of the World Bank (2.8%), but higher than ADB’s 1.8%.

While Vietnam’s economy growth slowed to 3.8% and 0.4% in the respective first and second quarters, the US bank expected GDP growth to quickly recover in the third quarter, mainly thanks to public investment, retail’s revenue and exports.

Notably, Goldman Sachs expects exports to be Vietnam’s major driving force for economic recovery. In the first eight months of 2020, Vietnam’s trade surplus reached an all-time high of US$13.5 billion, representing a 150% increase compared to the same period of last year (US$5.47 billion)

The bank’s report pointed to three major advantages contributing to a growing export turnover.

Firstly, Vietnam holds significant advantage in regional supply chains as the country is located in close proximity with China.

The labor cost in Vietnam is also considered competitive, which remains at half of China’s. For example, the minimum wage in major cities such as Hanoi or Ho Chi Minh City is regulated at US$190 per month, significantly lower than the US$360 in Shanghai. Meanwhile, the minimum wage in other cities in Vietnam and China were estimated at US$132 and US$220 per month, respectively.

According to Goldman Sachs, these factors led to a shift in production of firms in the fields of textile and footwear from China to Vietnam, especially during the US – China trade war. Since 2010, the FDI investment capital that was initially bound to China, South Korea, Japan or countries in ASEAN have now flowed to Vietnam.

Meanwhile, the fact that Vietnam is currently member of a number of free trade agreements (FTAs) with major trading partners could shield the country from growing protectionism globally. For instance in 2019, at the peak of the US – China trade tension, Vietnam’s exports had not been much impacted, which eventually led to a record trade surplus of US$11.12 billion that year.

In the future with the presence of the EU – Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA), Goldman Sachs expects Vietnam’s exports to continue growing.

Secondly, Vietnam’s structure of export products with a focus on hi-tech items would continue to be a major plus point for Vietnam. Since 2015, export turnover of products such as smart phones and electronic appliances have exceeded that of traditional items like textile or footwear.

In the January – August period, Vietnam’s export turnover of electronic products increased by 6.3% year-on-year amid the Covid-19 pandemic, accounting for 70% of total exports.

Thirdly, Vietnam’s long-standing trade partnership with China is also an advantage, as the latter would be among a handful of economies with a positive economic growth this year.

It is worth mentioning that China is currently Vietnam’s largest buyer.

In its baseline scenario, Goldman Sachs expects Vietnam’s exports to reach US$180 billion by the end of 2021, assuming the world would gradually contain the pandemic and the development of Covid-19 vaccine remains on track.

Amid global uncertainty, Vietnam continues to attract fresh FDI and remains an exception to a subdued private investment outlook of the Southeast Asian region in recent quarters.

Despite the second Covid-19 outbreak that will likely moderate the pace of third-quarter growth, Vietnam is predicted to remain the strongest growth performer this year in the Southeast Asian region with a GDP growth rate of 2.9%, thanks to effective virus containment, according to HSBC.

Source: HSBC.

In fact, the HSBC expected Vietnam would be the only country among six major economies in the region, or ASEAN-6 (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam), to record a positive economic growth, and then rebound to over 8.55% in 2021.

In contrast, the ASEAN-6 is predicted to contract 4.4% in 2020. This is ultimately a reflection of the fact that all ASEAN economies except Indonesia announced some form of hard lockdown to combat the virus, stated HSBC’s report.

The lockdowns and corresponding hit to mobility have significantly impacted private consumption, which is the largest component of growth in ASEAN. As a result, this was the main drag on growth in the first half of the year in all the economies, with investment a close second.

According to the HSBC, while the region’s private investment outlook has been subdued in recent quarters, owing in part to a moderation in FDI inflows, Vietnam has been an exception. Amid global uncertainty, the economy continues to attract fresh FDI.

A report from the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) revealed that year to August 20, 1,797 new projects have been approved with total registered capital of US$9.73 billion, up 6.6% year-on-year in capital.

The report shows that out of 106 countries and territories investing in Vietnam in the first eight months of 2020, Singapore took the lead with US$6.54 billion, followed by South Korea (US$2.97 billion), and China (US$1.75 billion).

The World Bank in late July predicted Vietnam’s economic growth at 2.8% this year, the world’s fifth-fastest-growing economy, while the government targets a growth rate in range of 3 – 4%.

Novaland Investment Group’s head office in Nguyen Du Street, District 1, Ho Chi Minh City. — Photo vinhomecitys.com

The market ended lower last week as many large-cap stocks faced selling pressure after the VN-Index hit a new high of over 1,255 points. Some analysts from securities firms expected that the market’s bullish trend will continue this week, while others were more cautious and see a downward trend dominating the market.

The market benchmark VN-Index on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE) fell 8.54 points, or 0.68 per cent, in Friday’s trade to 1,238.71 points. The index hit a record high of 1,255.87 points on Wednesday.

For the week, the index still rose slightly by 0.57 per cent, while foreign investors net sold a value of over VND2.4 trillion.

Analyst from Saigon – Hanoi Securities JSC (SHS) said that the third straight weekly gain of the market and a new record in liquidity showed investors’ big interest during this period. However, based on Elliott Wave Theory, the index was likely at the end of wave 5 last week and is about to turn to corrective waves with a closest target being around 1,135 points.

Therefore, a downward trend might influence the market this week, SHS added.

The index struggled and strongly fluctuated around 1,250 points, but failed to break through the level in the last session. The market breadth, besides some blue-chip stocks in real estate sectors and steel stocks, was negative last week.

Tran Xuan Bach, a senior stock analyst from Bao Viet Securities Company, also expected that the market might continue to be weighed by selling pressure this week.

“The VN-Index still receives support from the zone of 1,225 – 1,232 points in some early sessions this week,” Bach wrote in a daily report to customers.

“The market is likely to be influenced by some large-cap stocks, as well as a strong division of stock groups during this period.”

Meanwhile, analysts from Viet Dragon Securities Corporation (VDSC) were more optimistic about the market as large cash inflows into the market in the last session limited the losses.

Sharing the positive view, MB Securities JSC (MBS) said that the last session’s steep fall has boosted cash flows into the market for bottom fishing, creating a notable recovery.

On the technical front, the upward trend, which has extended over the last two months, will continue with the support territory in the short-term being 1,220 points, MBS added.

The HNX-Index on the Ha Noi Stock Exchange (HNX) also declined 1.02 per cent on Friday to 293.11 points. For the week, the index fell 0.23 per cent.

Real estate stocks posted outstanding performance last week as it went against the market’s trend in most sessions. Followed by material stocks.

Of which, Vingroup JSC (VIC), Novaland Investment Group Corporation (NVL) and Hoa Phat Group (HPG) contributed the most to help the market cap losses. These stocks climbed 16.29 per cent, 4.73 per cent and 4.46 per cent, respectively.

On the contrary, top three stocks influencing the market’s trend were Vietnam Rubber Group JSC (GVR), JSC Bank For Investment and Development of Vietnam (BID) and Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM).

In general, Viet Nam’s stock market was not so positive last week despite the benchmark increasing slightly as selling pressure spread to all sectors and foreign investors net sold a value in the trillions of dong. — VNS

Among 14 free trade agreements (FTAs) Vietnam has signed, the CPTPP is a new generation FTA with high standards and the highest level of facilitation. Vietnam has been forecast to be one of the members that benefits the most from the deal.

However, the country has experienced challenges in optimizing the FTA because of its modest level of development and competitiveness.

Due to US-China trade tensions and the impact of COVID-19, the global economy fell into crisis last year with interrupted supply chains. Vietnam also suffered an economic downturn. Therefore, after two years of implementation, the benefits from the CPTPP are still to be seen.

Vu Tien Loc, President of the Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry (VCCI), said that positive results in the two years of implementation include the reform of institutions and administrative procedures.

Explaining the modest benefits so far, Loc said major reasons include the poor competitiveness of Vietnamese enterprises, market instability, and the low capacity of State agencies.

Meanwhile, Nguyen Cam Trang, Vice Director of the Import-Export Department at the Ministry of Industry and Trade, said the CPTPP has helped promote Vietnam’s exports.

However, its market share and export growth to the six partners that have implemented the CPTPP have been low.

She noted that Vietnam’s market share is 3.1 percent in Japan, 1.9 percent in Australia, 1.6 percent in New Zealand, 1.3 percent in Mexico, 1.1 percent in Canada, and 1 percent in Singapore.

Growth in exports to CPTPP markets was 12.2 percent in 2018, 13 percent in 2019, and 12.02 percent in 2020, Trang added.

She said that, in the future, State agencies should enhance their capacity to implement the CPTPP while continuing to complete legal policies, strengthen communications regarding the deal, support macro-, small-, and medium-sized enterprises to improve their capacity, encourage investment in material production, and design measures to reduce logistics costs.

Businesses should also be more active in seeking opportunities from the deal, while changing their mindset and exploring demand in CPTPP markets to design suitable business strategies and plans, she added.

A survey by VCCI showed that about three-quarters of businesses said they will adjust their business plans to optimise the opportunities from the CPTPP and other FTAs.

Source: VNA