Trump

Subjective decision

The fact that the US labeled Vietnam and Switzerland as currency manipulators is not a new issue, rather there was a warning back in 2019. In the third quarter of this year, the US Tracking Currency Manipulation Department included Vietnam among the top countries with enhanced engagement, via statement on the Council on Foreign Relations website. This was done according to the US Treasury Department Evaluation Criteria that evaluates whether or not an economy is a currency manipulator.

Illustrative photo

These three criteria tend to be subjective and in part put pressure on export-oriented countries like Vietnam. For instance, most countries and territories with large exports like China, Germany, Thailand, Taiwan and Vietnam are very likely to violate the first two criteria. They may avoid the third criterion if they intervene foreign exchange activities to a certain limit and on an irregular basis. Previously, Taiwan showed its wisdom by using several derivative instruments to purchase foreign currencies. Taiwan tried to balance foreign currency reserves in some months to indicate that it did not make net purchases in those months. The US Treasury Department, however, showed its concerns about derivative transactions in its latest currency report.

Vietnam response

In response to the US viewpoint, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) affirms that its foreign exchange rate policy over the last few years has been a way to contain inflation, ensure macro stability and not create unfair trade advantage. Concerning the foreign currency intervention, SBV said its foreign currency purchases in the last few years was to maintain a stable flow of foreign currency by preventing an influx, thereby contributing to macro stability and strengthening of foreign exchange reserves. In other words, ensuring macro stability and strengthening foreign exchange reserves are reasons for SBV to practice currency intervention. This is rational for situation in Vietnam.

Vietnam has abundant foreign currency supplies because it receives large amounts of foreign capital and its balance of payments have generally improved due to substantial remittances and growth of exports. Abundant foreign currency supplies would have increased the value of the Vietnam dong if SBV had not made foreign currency purchases, which would be against the policy to stabilize the dong. That is to say, Vietnam must purchase foreign currency in order to continue to ensure macro stability and economic growth as an export oriented country.

Export surplus and foreign investment has brought about positive GDP growth and abundant foreign currency supplies for Vietnam over the last few years. There has been neither shortage of the USD nor currency speculation. In return, Vietnam has had to make regular foreign currency purchases to prevent a spike of the Vietnam dong when there is a sudden seasonal rise in foreign currency supplies. Although any success has its price. This need for foreign exchange stability, which is easily mistaken for a deliberate devaluation of the Vietnam dong against the US dollar to gain unfair trade advantage, provides an opportunity for the US to label Vietnam as a currency manipulator.

Diplomatic ploy

The story of US-Vietnam trade relations and currency manipulator labeling is similar to a Vietnamese fable in which one greedy teacher scolds a student when the student walks ahead of him, or alongside, or behind him. The truth is that the student is keeping the cake that the teacher gives him at the party earlier, and does not want to give it back to the teacher.

This fable story is indicative of the way the US labeled China as a currency manipulator. At the peak of the US-China trade war in early August 2019, the Trump Administration designated China as a currency manipulator, after China let its yuan plunge below level against the US dollar. This accusation was withdrawn in January 2020 after the first phase of US-China Trade Agreement was reached, with China promising to buy more products from the US. This proves that the Trump Administration used the currency manipulator label as a diplomatic ploy in order to achieve a strategic advantage.

It is obvious in the US Treasury Department Evaluation Report this time that Vietnam, Switzerland and Taiwan have been considered to meet all the three criteria for being designated as countries that may be maintaining unfair foreign currency activities or deliberately maintaining an unfair balance of payments with the US. In other words, being labeled a currency manipulator does not necessarily mean a country has violated all three criteria. Therefore, the US removal of Vietnam, Taiwan and Switzerland from its list of currency manipulators in the report this time indicates that it expects to receive other strategic advantages.

As this kind of report is published every two years, Vietnam may heave a sigh of relief as of now, but it must continue to promote good cooperation with the US, especially in trade and diplomatic issues so as to ensure its place in the next report issued by the US Treasury Department. One of the key points in this relationship with the US is that Vietnam should adopt a strong diplomatic policy based on mutual interests.

Dr. Ho Quoc Tuan, University of Bristol, UK Prof. Dr. Trần Ngọc Thơ, UEH

Vietnamese Party General Secretary and State President Nguyen Phu Trong on Wednesday held talks with United States President Donald Trump, who is in Hanoi for the second U.S.-North Korea Summit.

The meeting took place at the Presidential Palace in the Vietnamese capital at 11:00 am.

President Trump expressed his joy that the significant U.S.-North Korea Summit takes place in Vietnam.

General Secretary Trong affirmed that Vietnam had exerted its best efforts to provide the most favorable conditions for a successful summit.

Party General Secretary and State President Nguyen Phu Trong (R) shakes hands with U.S. President Donald Trump. Photo: Nguyen Khanh / Tuoi Tre

The two leaders witnessed Vietnamese carriers VietJet and Bamboo Airways sign deals with Boeing Co to buy 110 planes worth more than $15 billion.

Vietjet signed firm order to buy 100 new Boeing 737 Max planes worth $12.7 billion at list price, whereas Bamboo Airways inked a deal to purchase ten planes from the U.S. planemaker.

The two leaders witness the signing of many important documents following their talks . Photo: Nguyen Khanh / Tuoi Tre

President Trump arrived at Hanoi’s Noi Bai International Airport on late Tuesday and was welcomed by Minister-Chairman of the Government Office Mai Tien Dung, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Bui Thanh Son, Chairman of the Hanoi People’s Committee Nguyen Duc Chung, and several other high-ranking officials.

This is the second time the U.S. president has come to Vietnam.

In November 2017, he paid an official visit to Vietnam and attended the APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) Economic Leaders’ Meeting in the central coastal city of Da Nang.

Party General Secretary and State President Nguyen Phu Trong at the meeting. Photo: Nguyen Khanh / Tuoi Tre

President Donald Trump is pictured during the talk . Photo: Nguyen Khanh / Tuoi Tre

Vietnamese students wave the two countries’ flags in front of the Presidential Palace in Hanoi. Photo: Nguyen Khanh / Tuoi Tre

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Social media is one of the fastest growing technology trends, with 3.8 billion users as of the end of 2020.

Of the four Big Techs, including Google, Amazon, Facebook and Apple, or GAFA, half are social network tycoons.

Though having made great contributions to creating a digital world, the two giants Google and Facebook have recently been involved in a number of problems.

The two social networks dominate the online ad market, which has created manipulation in the market and hindered competition from weaker rivals.

Google and Facebook now control 70 percent of the digital ad market in the US. Meanwhile, a report of eMarketer showed that the two companies make up more than half of online ad revenue in Vietnam.

In an effort to restrain the impact from Facebook and Google, Australia has become the first country to require the two giants to pay for news content provided by media companies under a royalty system.

In retaliation, Facebook blocked the content of the Australian press. Its action raised alarm bells over the threat that platforms owned by tech giants can cause.

This is not the first time that technology giants have challenged state power. Most recently, large social networks blocked the accounts of the former US President Donald Trump.

The big power of the Big Techs has caused concern among governments in the world and prompted them to take actions to restrain power.

Opportunities for Vietnam

These actions are believed to create great opportunities for smaller platforms, including Vietnam’s social networks.

Zalo is the largest Vietnamese social network with 60 million users as of November 2020, as estimated by VietNamNet. The second largest domestic network is Mocha with 12 million members, while the third and fourth positions belong to Gapo (6 million) and Lotus (2.5 million).

Regarding the growth rate, Zalo had 20 million more members just after two years, or 50 percent higher than in 2018.

As for Mocha, the number of users is not high, but the scale of the platform has increased by 2.67 times compared with two years ago. The others, including Gapo and Lotus, have also shown significant capability after one year of operation. Both of them made debut in 2019.

Zalo is the largest Vietnamese social network with 60 million users as of November 2020, as estimated by VietNamNet. The second largest domestic network is Mocha with 12 million members, while the third and fourth positions belong to Gapo (6 million) and Lotus (2.5 million).

Vietnam also has hundreds of forums, such as Tinhte with 16 million visits a month, Voz (11 million), Webtretho (7 million) and Otofun (2 million). These show the sustainable vitality of traditional social network platforms.

The figures show that Vietnam’s social networks in recent years have been growing rapidly both in quantity and quality, which serves as an important prerequisite for the development of Vietnamese businesses and the digital economy in the country in the future.

Which way to follow?

No matter how powerful they are, technology giants may also be defeated by changes in technology trends. The collapse of Yahoo and Nokia is an example.

Trends in the future include the appearance of centralized social networks, small-scale social networks (a fee is required), audio social networks, and social networks targeting domestic users or certain organizations or businesses.

In general, new social networks will not succeed if they just imitate Facebook. They need to find a ‘common denominator’, which are basic human needs, regardless of country, age, sex or profession.

New social networks should also allow players to determine their own “rules of the game”. This is done by opening algorithms.

Experts say new social networks could be built with the development of many ‘filters’ which would be tailored to the needs and conditions of every nation.

Once general questions are solved, people will have bigger demands – solving the questions of smaller groups that have more specific characteristics. These characteristics cannot be imitated, because only those who are born and grow up in a land can understand the culture of the locality. This presents a great opportunity for Vietnam’s social networks.

This is one of the reasons for the increasing popularity of Zalo. The social network has been going its own way as it has developed from a messaging app for mobile phones.

Zalo is a typical localized social network as it solves a question which cannot be done by others – allowing people to send image files to each other with high quality. Online public services and information portals have also been gradually integrated, turning Zalo into a reliable address for people to use when necessary.

Started in Vietnam and created by Vietnamese, made-in-Vietnam social networks understand well what Vietnamese want. They can win Vietnamese hearts and establish footholds for themselves. This is proof of the sustainable existence of Davids in the war with Goliaths.

Trong Dat

US President Joe Biden has delivered his first speech to Congress, an event that marked his first 100 days in office. During this time, one of Biden’s decisive but ambitious decisions was to bring the US back to the Paris Climate Agreement, to lead the fight against climate change.

Immediately after taking office, Biden signed an executive decree bringing the US back into the Paris Agreement to combat climate change and quickly appointed former Secretary of State John Kerry as Special Presidential Envoy for Climate. In order to carry out his policy of putting the US at the forefront in the fight against climate change, Biden made a series of ground-breaking decisions, to reverse those of his predecessor.

The first international conference Biden hosted was on the topic of climate change. Affirming the US’ determination to take the lead in solving the current urgent climate change issue, Biden called on world leaders to accelerate plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The White House owner also made a commitment that by 2030, the US will cut its emissions by 50-52% compared to 2005 levels, double the commitment made by former President Barack Obama when signing the 2015 Paris Agreement.

The world has made significant progress in addressing climate change through new commitments made at the US-initiated virtual Leaders Summit on Climate. Japan and Canada set new targets to reduce their carbon emissions by 2030, which will see Japan reducing its emissions by at least 46% from 2013 and Canada by 40-45% , as compared with 2005 levels. The US vowed to join the global effort towards the 2050 goal of achieving neutral emissions in the sea-freight sector.

Brazil committed to working with other countries to achieve their carbon neutral goals by 2050, while the Republic of Korea announced that it will end financial support for coal plants abroad. With the newly announced emission reduction targets, more than half of the world’s economies have now committed to speeding up their action to curb the rise in the Earth’s temperature by 1.5C compared to the pre-industrial period.

However, the problem which the world must address urgently is the realisation of commitments. Biden announced that the US will double its aid to help developing countries respond to climate change. The White House said the US is aiming for ambitious but feasible goals in providing aid to developing countries due to the urgency of the climate change crisis and to compensate for a decline in funding under the administration of former President Donal Trump.

To this end, the White House pledged to triple funding for climate change adaptation by 2024, with the emphasis on current climate change adjustments. US agencies will also coordinate with development partners to prioritise climate issues in investment projects, expand technical assistance and increase funding for resilience and adaptation efforts. The US will work with Saudi Arabia and the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) to try to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the global freight industry, which generates one billion tonnes of carbon dioxide per year, the equivalent of Germany’s annual emissions.

The commitment to fight climate change the US and other countries have made increases the hope of meeting emissions reduction goals. However, there are still many challenges as the new commitments are considered ambitious, including the fact that countries have made many attempts but the distance between words and action is often long.

Prime Minister of Australia Scott Morrison said his country was on a roadmap to meet the commitments contained the Paris Agreement on climate change, but did not commit to a timeframe specifically to neutralise emissions to zero. Currently, Australia still maintains the same target of bringing emissions down 26-28%, compared with the levels of 2005, by 2030. This figure only accounts for 50% compared to the ambitious goals set out by Biden. China, the world’s leading emitter of greenhouse gases, said it will take more time to reduce its emissions.

The fact that the US, the largest economy and the second largest emitter in the world, officially re-joined the Paris Agreement with a pioneering attitude has created a strong impetus for other countries to join hands and deal with global warming. However, in order to realise the set goals, apart from the political will of governments, coordination is needed to turn commitments into action. This is not an easy problem because one can’t make bricks without straw, especially in the context that budgets directed towards the fight against climate change have been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Barcelona’s Argentinian forward Lionel Messi (L) vies with Valencia’s Portuguese forward Goncalo Guedes during the Spanish League football match between Valencia and Barcelona at the Mestalla stadium in Valencia on May 2, 2021.(JOSE JORDAN / AFP)

After Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid both won on Saturday, there was no margin for error at Mestalla, where Barca’s 3-2 win reduced the gap behind Atletico back to two points, now with four games left to play.

Gabriel Paulista headed Valencia in front early in the second half before Messi missed a penalty, only to smash in from the resulting scramble.

Griezmann and a superb Messi free-kick looked to have then made the victory secure but Carlos Soler’s stunning strike from distance left Barcelona holding on at the end, a nerve-wracking win meaning they could overtake Atletico Madrid next weekend if they beat Diego Simeone’s side at Camp Nou.

“We knew we would not have any calm games,” said Gerard Pique. “We are still in the fight. Calm games mean you’re not competing for anything.”

After a frantic week in which Real Madrid drew against Real Betis, Atletico lost to Athletic Bilbao and Barca were beaten on Thursday by Granada, order has been restored to some extent this weekend, with all the top three back to winning ways.

Sevilla are now six points behind Atletico and will need to beat Athletic Bilbao on Monday to stay in the mix ahead of their own crunch game next weekend away at Real Madrid.

“The only idea against Atletico is to win,” said Pique. “I hope we will be top by the end of the weekend but even if someone else is there, I wouldn’t put my house on them being champions.”

– Messi the trump card –

Barcelona’s key strengths and weaknesses were clearly demonstrated against Valencia where again they proved themselves to be the most creative team in the division while also showing their vulnerabilities at the back.

And if they have one trump card during the run-in, it is Messi, whose double takes his La Liga tally to 28 goals for the season, seven ahead of Karim Benzema and even more remarkable given his relatively slow start. The Argentinian now has seven in his last five games.

Ronald Koeman was banned from the bench after being sent off against Granada, with assistant coach Alfred Schreuder in his place on the line.

Barcelona had the better of the chances in the first half but Valencia could take encouragement from some clear openings on the break.

They should have capitalised early in the second half as Goncalo Guedes ran onto Soler’s pass but failed to beat Marc-Andre ter Stegen with a poked finish.

But Valencia scored from the resulting corner, Gabriel heading into an empty net at the back post, with Barca claiming a foul on Ter Stegen.

Thierry Correia had stepped across the goalkeeper but it was not enough for a free-kick.

Correia could have made it two shortly after but missed the target and instead, Barcelona scored three times in 12 minutes.

First, Valencia’s Toni Lato was guilty of a clear handball to prevent Frenkie de Jong tapping in and while Messi missed the penalty, a tame attempt pushed away by Jasper Cillessen, Sergio Busquets did brilliantly to keep the ball alive.

Gabriel blocked Pedri’s volley on the line and in the mayhem, Messi reacted fastest to smash in the rebound.

Six minutes later, Barca were in front, Griezmann finishing after De Jong timed his run perfectly to meet Alba’s floated cross, only for his header to be palmed by Cillessen into Griezmann’s path.

And then Messi scored the best of the lot, winning a free-kick with an excellent touch away from his marker centrally, on the edge of the box, before curling a delightful shot away from Cillessen’s left hand and in off the post.

Barcelona looked secure until Soler set up a dramatic finish by thundering in a shot from 30 yards with seven minutes left to play. Valencia pushed, flooding the box and chipping balls forward but ultimately lacking the final chance they craved.

AFP