Predictions at win draw win

Amidst the dangerous weather warnings, the Standing Office of the Central Steering Committee for Natural Disaster Prevention and Control yesterday requested the Steering Committee for Natural Disaster Prevention and Control in the Northern and North- Central provinces to promptly plan against downpours with risk of flashflood.

The target remains a challenging task, given growing uncertainties in the global and domestic economies, including the complicated evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Vietnam is expected to set an average GDP growth target of 7% in the five-year socio-economic development plan for the 2021 – 2025 period, according to Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc.

Illustrative photo.

The target remains a challenging task, given growing uncertainties in the global and domestic economies, including the complicated progression of the Covid-19 pandemic, Phuc said in a directive dated April 13 instructing the formulation of the upcoming five-year socio-economic development plan.

The 2021 – 2025 socio-economic development plan must be based on a comprehensive review of Vietnam’s performance in realizing the previous five-year plan, as well as on prediction of Vietnam and international economic outlooks.

PM Phuc suggested the economy would face tremendous difficulties during the 2021 – 2025 period, mainly due to unresolved internal weaknesses of the economy.

Additionally, socio–environmental issues such as aging population, income gap, natural disaster, climate change, and saltwater intrusion are putting pressure on socio-economic development.

The PM stressed priorities for the next socio-economic development plan would include:

(1)   Improving the institutions of the socialist-oriented market economy, with a view for rapid and sustainable economic development on basis of macro-economic stability and inflation under control.

(2)   Continuing to push for economic restructuring associated with transforming the growth model towards higher productivity, competitiveness and economic resilience; promote a comprehensive digital transformation and the establishment of digital firms with international competitiveness; improve the business environment and help spur economic recovery in the post-pandemic period.

(3)   Pushing for development of economic zones and supporting industries, with a view to meeting the need of the basic production inputs of the economy.

(4)   Establishing synchronous infrastructure systems in transportation, seaports, energy, IT, urban and agriculture, among others, while continuing to realize the national housing development strategy and national program of modernized farming.

(5)   Utilizing efficiently investment resources for economic development; developing new economic models with the application of digital technologies; enhancing efficiency in public debt management and utilization; accelerating construction progress for project of national priority.

(6)   Enhancing quality and efficient use of human resources to take advantage of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and contribute to economic modernization and integration.

Amid global uncertainty, Vietnam continues to attract fresh FDI and remains an exception to a subdued private investment outlook of the Southeast Asian region in recent quarters.

Despite the second Covid-19 outbreak that will likely moderate the pace of third-quarter growth, Vietnam is predicted to remain the strongest growth performer this year in the Southeast Asian region with a GDP growth rate of 2.9%, thanks to effective virus containment, according to HSBC.

Source: HSBC.

In fact, the HSBC expected Vietnam would be the only country among six major economies in the region, or ASEAN-6 (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam), to record a positive economic growth, and then rebound to over 8.55% in 2021.

In contrast, the ASEAN-6 is predicted to contract 4.4% in 2020. This is ultimately a reflection of the fact that all ASEAN economies except Indonesia announced some form of hard lockdown to combat the virus, stated HSBC’s report.

The lockdowns and corresponding hit to mobility have significantly impacted private consumption, which is the largest component of growth in ASEAN. As a result, this was the main drag on growth in the first half of the year in all the economies, with investment a close second.

According to the HSBC, while the region’s private investment outlook has been subdued in recent quarters, owing in part to a moderation in FDI inflows, Vietnam has been an exception. Amid global uncertainty, the economy continues to attract fresh FDI.

A report from the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) revealed that year to August 20, 1,797 new projects have been approved with total registered capital of US$9.73 billion, up 6.6% year-on-year in capital.

The report shows that out of 106 countries and territories investing in Vietnam in the first eight months of 2020, Singapore took the lead with US$6.54 billion, followed by South Korea (US$2.97 billion), and China (US$1.75 billion).

The World Bank in late July predicted Vietnam’s economic growth at 2.8% this year, the world’s fifth-fastest-growing economy, while the government targets a growth rate in range of 3 – 4%.

The GDP growth is expected to rebound to around 6.7% in 2021.

Vietnam targets an economic growth rate of 2% for this year in nornmal conditions and 2.5% if favorable factors emerge, according to Nguyen Chi Dung, minister of Planning and Investment.

Overview of the meeting. Photo: VGP.

The Vietnamese government remains steadfast in ensuring macro-economic stability and focusing on three major growth driving forces which are investment, export and domestic consumption, said Mr. Dung at a monthly government meeting on September 4.

For 12 socio-economic development goals in 2020, seven are highly to be achieved and potentially exceed their set targets.

According to Mr. Dung, Vietnam would continue to pursue the dual target of containing the Covid-19 pandemic and grasping opportunities for the resumption of economic activities.

While the pandemic has caused severe impacts on various economic sectors, the economy has not fallen into a recession and kept maintained a positive growth momentum, Mr. Dung asserted, adding this is a positive situation given a bleak outlook for countries in the region and all over the world.

Meanwhile, Mr. Dung pointed to a number of shortcomings that have not been able to be fully addressed, including the low productivity and competitiveness of the economy, weak linkages between domestic and foreign-invested firms, and limited integration into regional and global value chains, among others.

Looking ahead, Mr. Dung expected negative impacts from the Covid-19 pandemic to persist for the whole 2021.

With growing global uncertainties, Vietnam’s major economic partners are predicted to take at least two to four years to return to their pre-Covid-19 levels. However, Vietnam’s GDP growth should rebound to around 6.7% in 2021, for which the government is set to continue to look for a rapid and sustainable economic growth rate, Mr. Dung suggested.

Mr. Dung’s GDP forecast for this year is not vastly different from that of World Bank in July with 2.8%, making Vietnam the fifth fastest-growing economy globally, while HSBC also expected the country to reach growth of 2.9%.

The country’s economic expansion in the third quarter is expected to be in a range of 1.04 – 1.69%.

Vietnam’s GDP growth in the first nine months of this year is estimated at 1.51 – 1.76%, according to the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI).

Vietnam’ GDP growth in the third quarter is expected at an upper limit of 1.69%.

Meanwhile, the country’s economic expansion in the third quarter is expected to be in range of 1.04 – 1.69%.

The MPI also set up two growth scenarios for the fourth quarter, with a baseline scenario at 2.06% and at 2.86% for positive ones.

In 2020, Vietnam targets an economic growth rate of 2% in normal conditions and 2.5% if favorable factors emerge, while uncertainties could lower the country’s GDP growth to 1.69%.

In a government meeting on September 4, Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung said out of 12 socio-economic development goals in 2020, seven are highly likely to be achieved and potentially exceed their set targets.

The Vietnamese government remains steadfast in ensuring macro-economic stability and focusing on three major growth driving forces, namely investment, export and domestic consumption, added Mr. Dung.

Mr. Dung forecast negative impacts from the Covid-19 pandemic to persist for the whole 2021.

With growing global uncertainties, Vietnam’s major economic partners are predicted to take at least two to four years to return to their pre-Covid-19 levels. However, Vietnam’s GDP growth could rebound to around 6.7% in 2021, for which the government is set to continue to look for a rapid and sustainable economic growth rate, Mr. Dung suggested.

The MPI’s GDP forecast for this year is not vastly different from that of World Bank in July with 2.8%, making Vietnam the fifth fastest-growing economy globally, while HSBC also expected the country to reach growth of 2.9%.

In the first half of 2020, Vietnam’s GDP expanded 1.81% year-on-year, the lowest six-month growth rate in the past 10 years, but is still a spotlight in Asia.