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Trang An is a complex of scenic landscapes and historical and cultural heritage sites. The complex consists of the Hoa Lu Ancient Capital, Tam Coc and Bich Dong natural sites that offer boat trips through spectacular caves, and the Trang An ecological site of spectacular limestone areas and rice fields. The site dates back some 250 million years and contains hundreds of valleys and caves. In 2014 it was recognized by UNESCO as a world heritage site.

In 2018, the Trang An landscape complex was listed by the US website Insider among the 50 best spots to visit in the world. Annual tourism to the site grew 5.96 percent between 2015 and 2020, with international visitor growth reaching 11.4 percent a year, and tourism revenue increasing by 22 percent a year.

In 2017, Ninh Binh welcomed more than 7.5 million visitors, earning a turnover of over VND3.6 trillion. Since then, the province has upgraded tourism infrastructure in both quality and quantity so that by the end of 2019, 653 tourist accommodation establishments offered 7935 rooms, 60 percent more than in 2015. Of those, 60 hotels were rated from 1-4 stars, averaging 13.5 percent growth rate a year. The rapid development of tourism created jobs and stable incomes for residents, especially in rural areas.

While the Eiffel Tower took 131 years to reach a brand value of US$600 billion, and Britain’s Tower of London more than 1,000 years to be worth US$95 billion, the value of the 20-year-old Trang An landscape complex is estimated at about US$2 billion. Raising its brand value to US$10-15 billion in the next decade needs to be fully researched and calculated based on studies of unique values of heritage for advertising and attracting domestic and foreign tourists.

To achieve this target, Trang An must rank as one of the 10 most attractive destinations in Vietnam and one of top 20 in the Southeast Asian, focusing on synchronous development of infrastructure and services and a comprehensive and methodical promotion campaign to develop the brand of the complex.

Tourism developers should link the heritage with neighboring regions to form digital platforms, creating tourism products using artificial intelligence technology to introduce and connect heritage sites such as Trang An, Bai Dinh, Van Long, and Tam Chuc and the Bai Dinh-Kim Son route to increase their value and form a Trang An ecosystem.

In addition, they should improve the quality of the tourism workforce in accordance with Vietnam Tourism Occupational Standards (VTOS) to improve professionalism and service quality.

Kim Chi & Bui Huyen

During the period, total import-export revenue through border gates in Lao Cai reached over 11 million USD, including 2.4 million USD worth of imports, mainly fertilisers and farm produce, and 8.8 million USD worth of exports, mostly agricultural products.

In 2020, despite the impact of COVID-19, the Border Gate Customs Sub-Department under the Lao Cai Department of Customs completed its “twin targets” by processing customs clearance declarations for 516 businesses with import-export value of over 1 billion USD and ensuring safety from the pandemic.

In 2021, it will closely coordinate with other sectors to speed up administrative reform while exhibiting better performance in e-customs clearance activities to save time and cost, ensuring economic development and COVID-19 prevention and control at the same time./.

Local automobile group exports over 200 units, parts

Automobile producer THACO recently shipped more than 200 Kia vehicles and auto parts to Thailand, Myanmar, Japan, and the Republic of Korea (RoK).

The conglomerate’s largest export consignment to date, made on February 17, comprised of cars, buses and semi-trailers manufactured at its factories at the THACO-Chu Lai Industrial Park in central Quang Nam province.

The exports included 80 Grand Carnival cars to Thailand, the company’s seventh consignment to its partner, Yontrakit, since December 2019.

One hundred and twenty Kia Soluto cars were shipped to Myanmar, the sixth batch to this market.

Kia cars manufactured by THACO are increasingly appreciated by customers in ASEAN countries since their quality is equivalent to those made in the RoK and meets global Kia standards, while their prices are very competitive.

In 2021, THACO plans to export 1,480 automobiles to Thailand and Myanmar, expand exports to other markets, and gradually achieve its goal of becoming a production and export base for Kia Motors cars and spare parts in the ASEAN region.

This is THACO’s first export of semi-trailers to Japan, one of the most challenging markets in the world with stringent quality requirements.

It exported through its Nippon Trex, a leading manufacturer and exporter of semi-trailers in Japan.

Nippon Trex carried out extensive research on and technical discussions about semi-trailer product development in the Japan before appreciating THACO’s capacity and collaborating with it to manufacture and export semi-trailers to the market.

This time THACO also exported buses to Thailand via VOLVO Group’s VOLVO Buses Corporation, one of the world’s biggest manufacturers of large buses.

THACO buses were selected by VOLVO Buses for shipping and distributing in Thailand since they met all requirements in terms of technology, quality, safety, and competitive prices and Thailand’s standards and certification requirements (with respect to design, size, ECE certificates, and others). The company uses over 60 per cent locally made parts.

The shipment kicked off THACO’s plans to export 66 buses to Thailand and South Korea this year.

In addition to cars and semi-trailers, auto parts too were exported to the RoK, including seat covers, gearshift covers, air-conditioning radiators, and specialised vehicle components for Hyundai Santafe. The consignment was worth 200,000 USD.

With the import tax on CBU cars within the ASEAN bloc scrapped since the beginning of 2018, many car assemblers in Vietnam have switched to importing and distributing cars, whereas THACO has been expanding production and increasing the use of local parts to serve its strategy of exporting to Southeast Asia.

This year THACO will continue to export to existing markets Thailand, Myanmar, the Philippines, the US, and Japan and expand to other ASEAN countries, with a total of 2,500 vehicles. It expects to earn 30 million USD from exports of auto parts and other mechanical products.

Exports of large numbers of cars since last year have attested to the fact that cars made in Vietnam can compete in foreign markets, which is gradually helping raise the country’s profile in the global market.

THACO plans to increase exports to ASEAN and enter new markets in Africa, West Asia, South Asia, Australia, and elsewhere./.

Dinh An Economic Zone – driving force for Mekong Delta region

The Dinh An Economic Zone in the Mekong Delta province of Tra Vinh is one of eight coastal key economic zones in Vietnam. With an orientation to develop a multi-sector economic zone associated with sustainable marine economic development, Dinh An has focused on investment to become an economic driving force of the province and the Delta.

Dinh An has attracted nearly 50 projects to date with total investment capital of about 6.7 million USD. It is expected that by 2030 it will contribute up to 80 percent of the provincial budget.

Dinh An also has a strategic position in economic development associated with security and defence. Despite its huge potential, however, investment attraction in the zone is still lower than its potential.

Existing bottlenecks are hindering the Dinh An Economic Zone from becoming a driving force for economic development in Tra Vinh and the Mekong Delta as a whole./.

Conference discusses role of Vietnam in Asia-Europe partnership

A conference has been held in Moscow to discuss the outlook of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the role of Vietnam and Belarus in the expansion of the Asia-Europe development space.

Addressing the event, President of the “Asia-Europe House” Association Alexander Makhlaev highlighted the role of Vietnam’s traditional values in the country’s development.

He held that the political stability has paved the way for Vietnam’s economic development.

Meanwhile, Natalya Ivanova, an expert from AV Group, underlined the significance of international business environment in the integration process of each country.

She asserted that the EAEU is creating a new motivation, especially for the strengthening of cooperation among member countries as well as with partners, including Vietnam.

According to Chairman of the Council of Experts of the Eurasian Research Fund Grigory Trofimchuk, Vietnam, a dynamic developing country and a member of many integration mechanisms and international organisations, is working hard to speed up integration process.

Vietnam is the first partner to sign a free trade agreement with the EAEU in 2015, he noted, adding that the union should focus more on partnership with Vietnam as the country is a door to the world.

The official highlighted the dynamism of Vietnamese firms in Russia as well as other countries in the world. However, he said that Vietnam and the EAEU have yet to optimise each other’s advantages and potential, while a number of trade barriers between the two sides are still existing.

He held that both sides should discuss the maintaining of trade defence measures to increase trade in the future, adding the EAEU should show its advantage in the current period when the COVID-19 pandemic is developing complicatedly in the world.

Within the conference’s framework, Trofimchuk introduced his book entitled “Vietnam wings up”, expressing his hope that the book will help Vietnam and Russia become closer together in economy, trade and humanity./.

Investment booms as Soc Trang improves business climate

Soc Trang province’s efforts to improve its business climate is paying off with more and more investors, both domestic and foreign, coming since 2016.

The Mekong Delta province has worked with hundreds of potential investors seeking to invest in areas where the province has strengths like hi-tech agriculture, tourism and wind and solar power.

It approved 116 projects with a total investment of 27.3 trillion VND (1.18 billion USD) in 2016-20, 5.5 times the amount in the previous five years.

Nine of them are FDI projects.

Soc Trang authorities have been making efforts to improve the investment climate and provincial competitiveness by focusing on infrastructure and providing lands for projects.

They are keen on projects that are sustainable and environment-friendly.

Nguyen Thi Thuy Nhi, deputy director of the province’s Department of Natural Resources and the Environment, said her department had been reforming administrative procedures, boosting the province’s competitiveness in terms of attracting investment and business climate.

One key infrastructure project is the upgrade of Tran De deep-water port, which will reduce logistics costs for exports from the Mekong Delta.

The recently approved Chau Doc – Can Tho – Soc Trang highway will connect to the port, aiding goods transportation and improving links with the rest of the country.

The province is also creating a start-up eco-system with development assistance, incubation programmes and sponsorship for creative small and medium-sized businesses.

In the last five years 1,900 new businesses were set up, a 47.2 percent increase from 2011 – 15. Many companies have invested in manufacturing in the An Nghiep Industrial Park, creating tens of thousands of jobs.

In 2021 – 25 Soc Trang seeks to further improve its business climate and competitiveness, focusing on business assistance services, labour training and helping investors start projects smoothly.

There are 3,300 registered businesses in the province with a total charter capital of 33 trillion VND.

Soc Trang’s economy grew by 6.75 percent in 2020./.

Legal move supports realty market development in 2021

According to Ha Quang Hung, deputy head of the Housing and Real Estate Market Management Department under the Ministry of Construction, many policies regulating housing and real estate market growth have been improved and aligned with the current regulatory system on investment, construction, and doing business.

Significantly, the Law on Construction 2020 has been united with the Law on Housing, Law on Real Estate Business, and the Law on Environmental Protection regarding investment proposal approval, investor approval, or developer recognition, creating a healthier and more transparent investment environment while mitigating speculation and price manipulation activities.

“In 2020, despite the impacts of COVID-19, the real estate market still managed fair growth of about 8-11%, if indirect factors like capital, land, and building materials were taken into account,” said Hung.

Le Hoang Chau, chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association opined that several revised laws (Law on Investment, Law on Securities Business, and Law on Enterprises) coming into force from January 2021 have bolstered market growth.

“The realty market has undergone the most difficult period and will gradually rebound. Positive legal changes would motivate firms to join the affordable housing and mid-level segments more robustly,” he said.

From another angle, Su Ngoc Khuong, senior director at Savills Vietnam, a leading real estate consultancy firm, noted that the success of the 13th National Party Congress would bring vitality to the whole economy, particularly the real estate, especially in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi – Vietnam’s two growth engines.

The new “city in city” urban form of in Ho Chi Minh City is deemed an inspiring breakthrough, whereas in Hanoi transport infrastructure has witnessed noteworthy improvements.

In addition, experts assumed that fiscal and monetary policies in the past decade have proven successful, with well-controlled interest rates.

Nguyen Van Dinh, deputy general secretary of the Vietnam Real Estate Association (VNREA), outlined two scenarios for market development in 2021.

In the first scenario, with the mindset “cash is king” lingering in the first and second quarter of 2021, the market will be full of challenges due to low transaction volumes. COVID-19 will only be contained by the middle or the end of the first quarter with no new infections reported, allowing the market to gradually rebound.

In the second scenario, the pandemic would drag on to be contained no sooner than June. In this scenario difficulties would continue mounting. Accordingly, housing prices in the primary market are expected to shed an average 5% compared to last year, with sales volumes taking a plunge.

For commercial real estate, the lingering pandemic would lower operation efficiency as well as occupancy rates, while resort real estate would remain in “hibernation” the way it was in early 2021.

The latest report by Colliers International Vietnam forecast that more than 4,000 shop houses would be released in the Ho Chi Minh City market in 2021. The birth of Thu Duc City would fuel the development in the city’s northeast. Colliers data also show that products from six projects in Thu Duc, Binh Chanh, and Nha Be districts will enrich supply in the upcoming time.

Businesses urged to capitalise on opportunities to increase exports

Local businesses have been advised to diversify their markets to intensify import and export activities this year, alongside maximising the benefits of free trade agreements (FTAs), restructuring export products, developing stronger brands, whilst grasping market information and changes in the policies of importers, according to insiders.

With an impressive trade surplus of over US$19 billion last year, the industry and trade sector aims to increase the total export turnover for this year by between 4% and 5%, with the country’s trade surplus anticipated to maintain its momentum.

Despite this, Vietnamese exports this year are largely dependent on the prospects of the global economy, particularly if the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic can be brought under control.

With regard to the export situation in the year ahead, Vu Duc Giang, chairman of the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association (VITAS), said textile and garment exports this year will continue to face numerous difficulties ahead in the post-pandemic period. In line with this, Vietnam is likely to export goods worth between US$37 billion and US$38 billion providing that the pandemic is brought under control globally.

Giang pointed out that over the long-run, the Vietnamese garment and textile sector will continue to encounter challenges over the subsequent three years, noting that exports to major markets gradually return to a normal state once the pandemic is successfully curbed by the end of the third quarter of 2023.

He emphasised that new-generation FTAs, especially the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA), the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) can be expected to boost exports moving forward.

Experts have therefore attributed these difficulties to the current low level of market diversification among some agricultural and aquatic products, pointing out that although several products enjoy a tariff reduction of 0%, a number of domestic agricultural products have been not been allowed to gain entry into some markets.

Furthermore, despite the proportion of the FDI sector’s export value decreasing in recent years, it accounts for over 64% of the country’s total export value. This is due to the sector’s production and export activities being largely dependent on regional and global supply chains.

Moreover, the impact of the rising trend of protectionism, trade conflicts, and complicated developments of the COVID-19 pandemic globally have changed the structure of global supply chains, with several countries, especially the United States and western nations, strengthening trade protectionism measures.

Phan Thi Thanh Xuan, vice president and General Secretary of the Vietnam Leather, Footwear and Handbag Association, revealed that the leather and footwear sector has made the best use of the EVFTA, adding that the industry’s exports are poised to grow by between 15% and 20% this year if the COVID-19 epidemic is successfully contained.

Xuan underlined the need to devise stronger policies aimed at accelerating the development of the local supporting industry so it can independently produce raw materials and avoid a heavy reliance on imports.

In an effort to maintain the export growth in the year ahead, the Ministry of Industry and Trade is expected to help businesses take full advantage of opportunities from FTAs by removing barriers for market expansion and keeping a close watch on the developments of the COVID-19 pandemic in order to take timely response measures.

She pointed out that new generation FTAs ​​such as the CPTPP and the EVFTA are expected to provide fresh impetus to export growth over the coming year thanks to tariff incentives, adding that the shift in FDI investment flow from regional countries to the nation, along with the restructuring of supply chains, will also contribute to boosting exports this year.

Key solutions that can promote import and export activities moving forward will largely focus on diversifying markets, maximising the benefits from relevant FTAs​, restructuring export products, developing brands, whilst grasping market information and changes in policies of importers, Xuan noted.

Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Le Hoai Trung also underscored the importance of opportunities brought about by FTAs while urging the local ecnonomy to improve its autonomy to prepare for any worse-case scenarios and utilising the system of commercial counselors to perform tasks in line with these changes.

Minister of Industry and Trade and deputy head of the Party Central Committee’s Economic Commission Tran Tuan Anh, said there will be a positive outlook for the country in the years ahead thanks to favourable conditions from integration strategies and the enforcement of FTAs.

In addition, the Government’s schemes on economic restructuring, social security, reforms, open-door policies, and efforts to fine tune the legal system will also be beneficial.

Domestic food and beverage industry has development potential

The domestic food and beverage market has great potential for development despite the difficulties caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, according to experts.

Hanoi – The domestic food and beverage market has great potential for development despite the difficulties caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, according to experts.

Food and beverages are in the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) category. For many years, this has always been one of the important economic sectors with great potential for development, according to the Vietnam Report 2020.

The food and beverage market’s growth rate is forecasted to reach from 5-6 percent annually in 2020-2025.

Despite suffering negative impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic, the food and beverage industry in Vietnam also has many strong growth opportunities. At present, more and more consumers pay attention to nutritional foods of plant origin, organic foods or food with healthy ingredients.

A survey conducted by Vietnam Report at the end of 2020 showed due to COVID-19, half of customers have spent more on foods boosting their immune system and clean foods. Meanwhile, 63.7 percent of customers have cut spending on alcohol and beer. Therefore, businesses in this industry must adjust their production to suit demand.

Food businesses have to increase their production capacity by about 30 percent, while beverage businesses must reduce their production to lower than 80 percent compared to before the pandemic.

Besides that, Vu Dang Vinh, general director of the Vietnam Assessment Report Joint Stock Company, said COVID-19 has forced nearly 70 percent of food and beverage businesses to focus on the digital transformation for survival and development, reported the Vietnam News Agency.

Many businesses have built modern technology processes in production and management. Food and beverage companies have also sped up investment activities to renovate the distribution system and adjust the proportion between traditional and modern trading channels. They develop applications to enhance the customer experience when shopping and innovate packaging design, eco-branding and product line development.

Nguyen Dang Quang, chairman of Masan Group, said the COVID-19 pandemic is a good opportunity to promote e-commerce.

The group is building plans to attract more and more people to online shopping, he said.

Vinh said food and beverage businesses need to focus on strategies such as revenue growth, market development, promotion of research and improving product quality. They should also diversify supply sources with priority for domestic suppliers and develop online distribution channels on e-commerce platforms.

According to experts in the food and beverage industry, the stable macroeconomy and commitments in free trade agreements signed between Vietnam and its partners such as the European Union-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) would bring export opportunities and more foreign investment. They would promote the transfer of technology and technological advancement in the industry.

Along with that, the food and beverage companies need to improve their competitiveness and increase investment in infrastructure systems and modernisation of production processes and corporate governance.

Foreign investors divest Ninh Van Bay due to bleak performance

Two foreign investors, namely Recapital Investments Pte., Ltd and Belton Investments Ltd., decided to divest Ninh Van Bay Travel Real Estate JSC, the developer of Six Senses Ninh Van Bay Resort in Nha Trang.

Notably, Recapital Investments Pte., Ltd. issued an announcement to sell 10.7 million shares at Ninh Van Bay Travel Real Estate to decrease its ownership from 11.9 per cent to zero. Recapital Investments is an investment fund owned by Rosan P. Roeslani, the former president of Inter Milan football club.

Besides, Belton Investments Ltd. has also registered to sell its entire 6.4 million shares, equaling 7.07 per cent of the stake, in this company. The sale is expected to be completed between February 5 and March 1.

Previously, in 2013 Recapital Investments bought 30 million shares at the price of VND7,500 (32.61 US cents) apiece. Belton Investments has been a large shareholder since 2012. However, since 2019, both investors started to decrease their ownership in Ninh Van Bay Travel Real Estate.

The reason for the divestment may be the bleak business results of Ninh Van Bay.

Notably, the company listed its stake on the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange in 2010 with the initial price of VND30,000 ($1.30) apiece, however, the stocks plunged to VND1,000 (4.35 US cents) apiece in 2017. Besides, the company suffered a loss of VND479 billion ($20.83 million).

After two years of restructuring, the company reported a profit of VND27 billion ($1.17 million) in 2019, more than 13 times the figure of VND2 billion ($86,960) in 2018. In 2020, the company acquired VND211 billion ($9.17 million) in net revenue, down 24 per cent on-year. The main reason for this bleak business result came from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

At present, Ninh Van Bay stocks are traded at VND5,680 (24.70 US cents), rising 22 per cent over the past three months.

Upbeat export-import picture in early 2021

Many of Vietnam’s growth engines have posted impressive export-import performance, with Ho Chi Minh City, Bac Ninh, and Binh Duong being the top performers.

The latest statistics from the Vietnam General Department of Customs show that the country raked in $55 billion in total export-import turnover in the first month of 2021, a 48 per cent jump on-year.

Many localities have posted fairly impressive growth in their export import value compared to the corresponding period in 2020 despite the impacts of the recent COVID-19 reemergence.

Leading the list is Ho Chi Minh City which counted $8.9 billion in total export-import value, followed by Bac Ninh with $7.7 billion, Binh Duong with $5 billion, Thai Nguyen with $4.4 billion, and Hanoi with $3.8 billion.

Many localities have posted fairly impressive growth in their export import value compared to the corresponding period in 2020 despite the impacts of the recent COVID-19 reemergence.

This is an impressive performance as Hai Duong needs to ramp up efforts to carry out the dual target of preventing and curing COVID-19, while still ensuring socio-economic development.

Last year, the province attracted nearly $7.76 billion in total export value and more than $6 billion in total import value, and carved out a place among the localities with biggest export-import value in the northern region.

Quang Ninh, Lao Cai, and Lang Son (the major export players) have increased business even during the Lunar New Year holiday. For instance, on the first three days of the new year, the Lao Cai International Border Gate’s Customs Bureau had completed customs clearance for 4,000 tonnes of export-import goods valued at more than $2 million.

In Ho Chi Minh City, right on the eve of the Lunar New Year, Saigon New Port Corporation conducted a ceremony to receive goods marking the New Year of the Ox.

In 2020, the cargo volume calling on Ho Chi Minh City’s Cat Lai port rose 8.2 per cent, making it one of the top performers worldwide in cargo throughput volume. This year, the cargo volume through Cat Lai port is expected to surge 5 per cent.

More than 7,000 tonnes of goods passed through each day Mong Cai International Border Gate Customs Bureau under Quang Ninh Customs Department during the Lunar New Year holiday.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade forecast that export business would maintain its growth momentum in February, especially in localities hosting the manufacturing complexes of South Korean tech giant Samsung Group, leveraging the proliferation from January 2021. The exports of handsets and accessories could lift up, capitalising on Samsung’s fresh roll-out of new items such as Samsung Galaxy S21, Samsung Galaxy S21 Plus, and Samsung Galaxy S21 Ultra.

Larger frame of mind for logistics

Throughout more than three decades of economic reform, Vietnamese companies from many sectors have been venturing abroad and become role models. Yet, the logistics sector remains too focused on the domestic market. Tran Thanh Hai, deputy director of the Ministry of Industry and Trade’s Agency of Foreign Trade, emphasised that local players should follow regional examples and take their business to international arena.

In this context, logistics activities were affected significantly, with railways, roads, and air transport being the most heavily affected, while waterways and warehouses remained largely unscathed and even saw growing business due to rising inventory.

Different from five years ago, logistics have been given due attention by all state levels, as shown in the directive documents of the government, ministries, and branches, that all considered logistics a crucial aspect of the economy. From there, policy changes and significant investments in infrastructure could be accomplished, along with the easing of administrative procedures for businesses in this sector.

However, one of the current challenges is the lack of large-scale Vietnamese enterprises with influence in the logistics industry, while large foreign-invested enterprises (FIEs) such as FedEx, UPS, and DHL from the United States and Europe dominating the country’s logistics sector.

In Vietnam, telecom, real estate, and manufacturing enterprises have built outstanding businesses that drive their respective industries. Within the logistics sphere, however, there is no such role model.

Companies like Saigon Newport, Gemadept JSC, Transimex JSC, and Sotrans Co., Ltd. are contributing their share but can hardly be called outstanding yet. The general picture of today’s businesses is stiffening, with competing FIEs operating in Vietnam, while those from other countries are integrating into global markets.

Additionally, the domestic logistics sector remains rather small with limited international operations, while this industry is really about going global and partaking in imports and exports. So far, the number of Vietnamese enterprises operating in foreign markets is also small, with even the bigger names not providing services to foreign markets. In the era of global integration, we must go to the world to develop, and thus this remains the Achilles heel of the domestic industry. Moreover, weak links with other service providers elsewhere have not been established and utilised sufficiently. Although Vietnamese manufacturers have been able to export goods to Europe in large volumes, there is no logistical presence of local companies.

As such, logistics groups stop all operations at Vietnam’s gates, after selling and delivering goods to customers, resulting in low added value and a lack of competitiveness against foreign counterparts.

Against this backdrop, the largest difficulties relate not to capital but to the awareness of Vietnamese entrepreneurs, who are typically shy in new environments, especially when confronting foreigners. Many businesses dare to run their operations but mostly focus on the domestic market as they feel that doing business in their own country is easier. Problems here can be handled the familiar Vietnamese way, while they would have to follow foreign rules outside and establish new personal networks and relations. Within the current logistics community, FIEs and state-owned enterprises are relatively stable, but the private sector consists mainly of small-scale businesses, with some newly established or separated from others.

In Vietnam, the number of FIEs is increasing constantly, with nearly 40 multinational corporations and many smaller ones present in the market. However, companies from Japan and South Korea are very ethnocentric and prefer to use the services of their country’s enterprises, which support and protect each other. Meanwhile, European and American businesses are somewhat more open-minded. They use traditional services but do not pay much attention to their partners’ country of origin. Multinationals have financial advantages, so it is easier for them to establish a foundation and attract high-quality human resources than it is for domestic ones. They also make great use of experienced CEOs.

The great advantage of FIEs is their cooperative relationship with partners worldwide. From these relationships, they provide most of the services requested by manufacturers at competitive prices. The service quality of these enterprises is often at a higher level than that of domestic ones, reflected in their professionalism, the assurance of standardised service quality, and strict rules and norms, which provide credibility for these businesses.

Those businesses also pay special attention to customer care and focus on the long-term benefits, instead of immediate returns. Therefore, at some stages, they even accept losses to win customers’ sympathy and build a reputation. Meanwhile, some Vietnamese businesses follow a fast-paced approach that aims for quick profits rather than long-term relationships and market presence. Such a mentality will also not pay attention to quality.

Models to follow

With a growth rate of 12-14 per cent per year, Vietnam’s logistics sector is growing, albeit merely gradually. It may take another 5-10 years to see strong differences today. As this speed remains slow, Vietnam’s logistics needs to go faster to avoid lagging behind other countries.

Up to now, Vietnam’s logistics growth has mainly relied on the scale of commodity production, consumption, and import-export, which are natural factors for growth advantages. However, these are not intrinsic factors of the logistics sector, they are just objective ones.

If one of these factors changes – such as COVID-19, natural disasters, and the declining domestic demand – the sector’s growth will suffer if it is not well established in foreign markets.

Thus, Vietnamese groups need to step out of their comfort zone, adapt quickly, and avoid thinking of themselves as small and inferior. Small does not mean weak.

At present, Vietnamese enterprises focus only on the domestic market, and give little thought to venturing abroad. Meanwhile, I am confident that Vietnam’s logistics can provide decent services to the regional market, such as Laos, Cambodia, and Thailand – all of which are close by and of similar development levels. Vietnam already has top enterprises in leather, footwear, steel, and automobiles. Thus, the logistics sector can build on their experience and develop leading groups from those sectors.

Singapore can also be a good example for Vietnam. Its government was determined to put all its advantages into developing the logistics sector and to turn Singapore into the largest transshipment port in the world. To do that, Singapore has largely sacrificed marine tourism. Nowadays, the island nation is housing some of the leading enterprises in logistics fields. It boasts PSA Co., Ltd., the world’s largest port operator, which also has a joint venture in Vietnam’s Cai Mep port complex in the south.

In the aviation industry, it has Singapore Airlines – a 5-star airline which for many years maintained its position as the world’s leading airline. Before the pandemic hit, Changi Airport was consistently one of the busiest airports in the world.

Another model is Taiwan, which has strong logistics development. Of course, there are also more developed economies like Japan or Germany whose level of development is already at a much higher level. The country needs it, the government needs it, and the businesses that want to grow strong also need to be bold and venture abroad with an outward-looking spirit. Vietnam opened its doors to global integration 35 years ago, but it is now up to businesses to step out or not. The government alone cannot do this.

Vietnam’s mobile devices reached the export value of $51 billion last year

Mobile devices and components produced in Vietnam last year were exported to 50 markets and reached the export value of more than $51.18 billion, according to the latest data published by the General Department of Vietnam Customs.

In comparison with 2019, export value was slightly down 0.4 per cent. Nevertheless, it is still one of the Vietnamese economy’s main sectors by occupying nearly one-fifth (18 per cent) of the export value.

China remained the largest consumption market for the goods category with $12.34 billion, making up 24 per cent of Vietnam’s export turnover from mobile phones, and up 48.8 per cent on-year. Europe was the second-largest export market with a turnover of $9.9 billion, up 18.9 per cent on-year.

The runners-up were the US, South Korea, and the United Arab Emirates with $8.79 billion, $4.58 billion, and $2.53 billion. In addition to China, other markets like Hong Kong, Canada, and Japan last year increased their purchasing of mobile devices and components from Vietnam by 44.14 per cent to $1.73 billion, 34.3 per cent to $826.23 million, and 16.5 per cent to $937.75 million, respectively.

2020 is the first year Vietnam has seen a plunge in the export turnover of mobile devices and components. Over the previous 10 years, the sector has been going from record to record, even recording triple-digit growth in a few years like in 2011 when it hit 178.3 per cent.

Thanks to that, mobile devices and components exceeded garment and footwear production to become the sector with the largest export value for Vietnam, mainly driven by foreign-invested enterprises, lead by Samsung. To date, about 60 per cent of the South Korean giant’s items are produced in Vietnam.

Impetus for rubber suppliers to bounce back even higher

Although expectations for an increase in rubber prices remain low, the recent spikes have left rubber growers in Vietnam less worried. Nevertheless, to cash in on the recovering carmakers and other industries after the pandemic, as well as compete with regional rivals, local latex gatherers may need to step up their game and apply for official certificates.

More than an hour’s drive from Pleiku, the capital of the Central Highlands province of Gia Lai, small roads are running through immense rubber forests. The town of Ia Kha is crowded with more than 8,000 people, but unlike in the past, these people are less occupied with farming than before.

Ro Mah Kiu, a worker in the 15 Corporation at 74 Company, often wakes up at 3am to scrape latex. When he was still farming, he lacked the necessary skills, often left behind a wasteland, and struggled all year round. As his life remained difficult, Kiu became worried about his future.

Eventually, he joined 74 Company’s local farmer support group to focus on latex extraction. But it was not easy to become a latex farmer. Proper care for mature rubber trees is tricky and learning the right technique for extracting the latex from the tree even more so.

The pandemic caused a scarcity in labourers and made it difficult to gather and process latex. Colonel Hoang Van Sy, commander of the 15 Corporation, told VIR, “The recruitment of new workers is cumbersome. Workers lost their jobs in other industries and returned to their localities in huge numbers, but after being recruited for latex exploitation, it always takes a lot of time training for them to become skilled enough for the job.”

In addition, between 2018 and 2019, the corps saw nearly 3,000 workers reaching retirement age, leaving a hole in the corps’ workforce that has yet to be filled.

Unlike in many other sectors, workers in the rubber industry are not just dependent on markets but also the weather, which sometimes leads to heavy impacts on price calculation.

“We are forced to cut input costs to a minimum, from over VND50 million ($2,175) per tonne of latex to VND32 million ($1,400) to reduce the pressure on prices,” Sy said.

The long chain of declining prices in the rubber sector had lasted for nearly 10 years, with few people thinking they would ever bounce back. However, in the last months of 2020, rubber prices at the Osaka exchange – the reference for the natural rubber market in Europe and Asia – experienced nine consecutive gains. On October 28, the most-traded April 2020 futures contract increased by ¥20 (19 US cents, equalling 7.9 per cent) to ¥274.3 ($2.65) per kilogramme, the highest closing price since March 2017. The increase in this session was also the highest since the end of 2008.

Reversing prices for rubber can be easily envisioned in a period of economic development, but with 2020, a year of stagnation and economic decline amid the pandemic, market interference from the Chinese market becomes more apparent. Statistics of the Chinese Customs Department said that in the first 11 months of 2020, China’s rubber imports reached $9.76 billion, up 4.5 per cent compared to the same period in 2019.

The staggering market recovery can also be explained by the fact that rubber production in China last year dropped by 30 per cent on-year, due to massive storms on Hainan Island and droughts in Yunnan province.

China has seen a significant increase in imports with only a gradual decrease in consumption. The 11-month data of Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade shows that China spent $4.34 billion, up 35.2 per cent over the same period in 2019, for the import of a popular mixture of natural and synthetic rubber.

Meanwhile, the Chinese auto industry – one of the key sectors for rubber consumption – remained on a downturn due to the global health crisis. Although the situation is slowly improving, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers estimates that sales in 2020 dropped by 10 per cent, much lower than forecast.

The ability for rubber prices to recover globally stands in stark contrast to the decrease in supply. The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) predicts that in 2021, global rubber production could recover to around 13.7 million tonnes, an increase of 8.6 per cent compared to last year. However, even with this increase, 2021’s production would still be lower than that of 2019 and 2018, with about 13.8 million tonnes.

Rubber production across Southeast Asia, which accounts for two-thirds of global natural rubber supply, has been severely affected by labour shortages due to the pandemic, natural disasters, and other disadvantages. The demand-supply gap is widening, while rubber traders fear the supply shortage will be further exacerbated by the continuing political instability in Thailand and the uncontrolled pandemic.

According to the ANRPC, 2020’s production decreased by about 6.8 per cent compared to 2019, to 12.9 million tonnes, mainly due to the decline in Thailand and India, of which Thailand’s output decreased by about 332,000 tonnes. This corresponds to the forecast of the Rubber Authority of Thailand on last year’s production, which was already estimated to be about 10 per cent lower due to the constant rains in the south of the country.

In Vietnam, the trend of decreasing latex plantation areas is also apparent at some large suppliers.

Dong Nai Rubber Co., Ltd., which had specialised in natural rubber supply, has started its plan to reduce 40-50 per cent of its exploitation and preliminary processing by 2025 to switch into fields with higher margins. According to Do Minh Tuan, general director of Dong Nai Rubber, latex exploitation so far contributed around 70-75 per cent of the company’s revenue. Last year, the firm even recruited 250 more locals as workers but remained unable to make up for the shortage to meet production goals.

Less worried farmers

Although some multilateral deals like the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement have opened a door for exports to grow, Vietnam’s rubber sector has yet to make real use of these opportunities. The EU market has a large demand for high-end rubber, for which Vietnamese producers could provide the input materials. According to statistics from the General Department of Customs, the European market accounted for merely 5.1 per cent of the total export volume of 1.1 million tonnes of rubber within the first nine months of 2020.

Meanwhile, Huynh Tan Sieu, head of technology and environment at the Vietnam Rubber Industry Group, pointed out that local businesses also miss out on the opportunity to further the competitiveness of Vietnamese rubber in the global market by not applying for the FSC forest management certification, which confirms social and environmental characteristics of a company’s operations.

John Heath, commercial director at London-based natural rubber company Corrie MacColl Ltd., said in January that the European market is currently paying much attention to FSC-certified rubber. His company is distributing about 500 tonnes of certified latex to the European market each month, “a very small fraction of the growing demand for FSC-certified rubber in this market,” Heath explained.

In response to growing pressure from civil organisations and consumers, companies take more responsibility for supply chains, and Heath said that Corrie MacColl aims to “do the right thing, so it will not buy rubber from customers who cut primary tropical forests to plant rubber.”

Good products and official forest certifications have enabled 15 Corporation to access markets outside of China, led by the desire to reduce the focus on a single export market. As such, customers from Russia, Sweden, India, and Japan are considering buying the company’s latex and rubber.

However, since costs are currently higher for sourcing from the Central Highlands, “sustainable solutions with mutual benefits have to be agreed on,” said Sy of the 15 Corporation.

He hopes that the output of the 40,000ha will suffice this year to reach the targeted 10-15 per cent increase in revenue and secure the jobs of more than 10,000 workers. In 2020, the corporation banked a gross revenue of over VND1.5 billion ($65.2 million).

Vietnam leading car dealers struggle with Covid-19 impacts

While car prices in 2020 were significantly lower compared to the pre-Covid-19 period, customers had become more cautious in spending, leading to an 8% year-on-year drop in car sales to 296,634 units.

Major car dealers in Vietnam, including Savico, Haxaco and City Auto, posted modest return on sales (ROS) of 1-2% in 2020, mainly due to customers tightening their belt amid a difficult Covid-19 year.

“The pandemic had led to fierce competition in car prices, causing a downturn in the company’s business performance,” stated Savico in its financial statement.

Savico, a distributor of major car brands of Toyota, Volvo, Honda, Mitsubishi, recorded the highest revenue among the three with VND16.13 trillion (US$700.2 million), down 12% year-on-year, and profit of VND224 billion (US$9.72 million), or ROS of 1.38%.

While car prices in 2020 were significantly lower compared to pre-Covid-19 period, customers had become more cautious in spending, leading to an 8% year-on-year drop in car sales to 296,634 units, data from the Vietnam Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (VAMA) noted.

City Auto, a major distributor of Ford and Huyndai, suffered a same fate with a decline of 11% year-on-year in revenue to VND5.67 trillion (US$246.1 million) and net loss of over VND4 billion (US$173,800).

Last year, City Auto predicted a challenging year of 2021 for the automobile industry following a sharp drop in market demand.

In a letter to the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange, City Auto attributed its negative business performance to lower car sales volume.

In contrast, Haxaco, a leading Mercedes-Benz car dealer in Vietnam, recorded a rise of 8% year-on-year in revenue to VND5.57 trillion (US$241.8 million) and after-tax profit of VND125 billion (US$5.42 million), up 150% year-on-year.

A senior official at Haxaco said the firm took advantage of the government’s policy of reducing 50% of the registration fee for domestically-produced cars to boost sales revenue. However, Haxaco’s ROS remained at a modest rate of 2.24%.

A study from SSI Securities Corporation suggested 2021 could start the upward trend of Vietnam’s automobile industry with a 16.3% year-on-year growth rate in terms of car sales number, citing high demand from the domestic market for cars.

Source: VNA/VNS/VOV/VIR/SGT/Nhan Dan/Hanoitimes

Industrial zones (IZs) registered $5 billion worth of foreign direct investment at a meeting between Haiphong Party Committee and IZ infrastructure investors aimed to resolve difficulties and promote investment in IZs.

Notably, Sao Do Investment Group JSC registered an investment of $1 billion in Nam Dinh Vu Industrial Park (IP), while VSIP Haiphong JSC will inject $1-1.5 billion in VSIP Haiphong, Saigon-Haiphong Industrial Park JSC $1 billion in Trang Due IP, and Deep C IZs are expected to lure in $1-1.5 billion.

In order to support these IZs’ investors realise the above target to attract $5 billion in FDI capital, Le Van Thanh, Secretary of Haiphong Party Committee asked Haiphong Economic Zones (EZ) Management Authority, and relevant authorities to promote administrative reform to deal with difficulties facing IZs, as well as review their compliance.

“The city will create favourable conditions for investors to implement their projects. Investors also have to comply with the approved planning, expand operations in accordance with sustainable development, and avoid unexpected environmental impacts,” Thanh said.

Meanwhile, the authority proposed the province to accelerate land clearance to create a land fund for investors, while simultaneously allocating land for building housing for workers and building plans for training human resources.

In addition, the authority also proposed the province to build a policy to deal with enterprises’ difficulties caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, as numerous partners cannot enter Vietnam to appraise their projects, impacting business activities. The authority also requested the province to compile policies to support labourers who cannot go home to enjoy Tet.

Haiphong currently has 12 IZs, eight of which are located in Dinh Vu-Cat Hai EZ, and four others are located outside the EZ. These IZs attracted 570 projects, 403 of which come from foreign investors worth $17.1 billion. These IZs generated 158,000 jobs for local labourers.

According to the plan, the city will construct 15 more IZs with the total area of 6,418 hectares this year.

Vietnam’s GDP growth rate may expand at 5.8 per cent

The Vietnam Institute for Economic and Policy Research (VEPR) estimated the country’s GDP growth at 5.6-5.8 per cent – or 1.8-2 per cent if the worst comes to pass.

The most recent resurgence of COVID-19 has been brought under control in short order, with no new breakout expected for the best part of this year. Thanks to that, domestic economic activities will continue to recover and comply with the new normal of the global economy, where sporadic, small-scale resurgences are expected by the VEPR.

Consequently, the impact of COVID-19 will be felt less serious across economic sectors than in 2020, resulting in an estimated GDP growth rate of 5.6-5.8 per cent.

However, under a more pessimistic scenario, the local economy will see larger disruptions by the health crisis, resulting in slower economic growth of 1.8-2 per cent. The scenario includes continued travel restrictions and prolonged difficulties for catering and accommodation services.

The VEPR’s policy recommendations warned Vietnam not to follow other nations’ macro policies such as loosening monetary policy to mitigate prolonged budgetary deficits. Furthermore, preventing COVID-19 and ensuring social welfare are also setting a burden on national budgets.

However, the current priority should remain to assure social security, stabilise the business climate, lessen the pressure on businesses which have temporarily halted operations, and support those that are still operational.

In particular, social security policies should provide more support for labourers working in the informal sector because this group makes up a sizeable portion of the population and are more vulnerable to the crisis, while also having the hardest time accessing welfare packages.

High hopes for economic advances

Despite enduring a heavy toll caused by the global health crisis in 2020, the Vietnamese economy is expected to drive forward strongly thanks in part to a boost in domestic consumption and investment, which will continue being among prime priorities set by the government to achieve its new growth goal.

This impressive achievement, as noted by Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment Tran Quoc Phuong, resulted from the massive efforts of the Party, the state, the public, and enterprises.

“However, massive difficulties remain. While almost all economies in the world are struggling to recover, there is no certain evidence that the pandemic will end soon,” Phuong said. “Vietnam’s economy has also been seriously hurt.”

Two recent large-scale surveys by the General Statistics Office involving more than 130,000 businesses said that around 83 per cent of the respondents admitted they were negatively impacted.

However, Phuong said COVID-19 in 2020 has changed the game for the 2021-2025 period. “Many new trends have emerged, reshaping international financial flows, trade, and investment, especially supply chain shifts, creating many challenges but also opportunities for economic recovery in the long term,” he said. “Taking advantage of new prospects for economic recovery in 2021 and a breakthrough in the 2021-2025 period is important to achieve the goals set out in the Socioeconomic Development Plan for the period.”

Given COVID-19 and many other negative potential impacts from the global economy, the National Assembly (NA) cautiously set a target of 6 per cent in the country’s economic growth this year. However, now more optimistic about the economic outlook, the government says that greater efforts are to be made to reach a growth rate of at least 6.5 per cent in 2021.

The World Bank is expecting Vietnam’s economy to continue to flourish this year.

“By all standards, Vietnam has managed the COVID-19 crisis very well. Looking ahead, Vietnam’s prospects appear positive as the economy is projected to grow by about 6.8 per cent in 2021 and, thereafter, stabilise at around 6.5 per cent. This projection assumes that the COVID-19 crisis will be brought gradually under control, notably through the introduction of an effective vaccine,” said the World Bank in its most recent economic update for Vietnam.

According to the National Centre for Socioeconomic Information and Forecast (NCIF) under the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI), although the pandemic continues to expand, some positive signals have been seen. Vaccines have begun to be administered in many nations, and this will continue being expanded in 2021.

“Thus, the global economy will gradually warm up, helping increase investment and trade globally and this will have a positive impact on the Vietnamese economy,” said the NCIF’s deputy director Dang Duc Anh.

The Vietnamese economy has in recent years opened itself up further to the global economy. Last year, while GDP hit VND6.3 quadrillion ($273.9 billion), its total export-import turnover reached $544 billion, nearly doubling GDP.

According to the latest forecast by the Vietnam Economics Institute under the Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences, Vietnam’s GDP this year may grow 5.49 per cent (basic scenario), 6.9 per cent (high scenario), or 3.48 per cent (low scenario). The possibility for each scenario to become true would depend on the global situation and the Vietnamese economy’s internal strength in domestic consumption, production, and investment – including public investment.

According to the MPI, from now until the year’s end, boosting domestic consumption and public investment as well as attracting more foreign direct investment (FDI) will be among prime priorities for the government to achieve its new growth goal.

In 2020, the economy’s total retail and consumption service revenue hit over VND5 quadrillion ($217.4 billion), up 2.6 per cent on-year.

“Consumer confidence has gradually bounced back,” said an expert from the World Bank in Vietnam. “Many enterprises have found it difficult to boost exports and then turned to the domestic market. Many enterprises, already boasting a firm niche at the local market, have been expanding operations here.”

The World Bank said that retail sales also continued to grow, thanks to strengthening domestic demand for goods. Specifically, retail sales grew at 9.4 per cent on-year in December 2020, the highest growth rate since February 2020. Growth is driven by domestic demand with retail sales of goods 13.8 percent higher than in the same period last year.

According to the Asian Development Bank, in addition to spurring on local consumption, the government must find all ways to accelerate public investment as one of the key pillars for economic growth this year and beyond.

Figures from the Ministry of Finance showed that as of the end of 2020, nearly VND390 trillion ($16.95 billion), equivalent to 82.8 per cent of the plan allocated, has been disbursed, while the figure as of the end of November was only VND329.9 trillion ($14.3 billion), equalling 70.1 per cent. This is the highest ratio of disbursement in 2016-2020 – with 80.3 per cent in 2016, 73.3 per cent in 2017, 66.87 per cent in 2018, and 67.46 per cent in 2019.

Since early 2020, many state-funded projects, mostly infrastructure works, have been put into operation, fuelling socioeconomic development.

For example, on January 5, the first phase of Long Thanh International Airport in the southern province of Dong Nai commenced construction. The 5,580-hectare airport is expected to cost VND336.63 trillion ($14.64 billion), with the first phase needing over VND109 trillion ($4.74 billion). The airport is expected to relieve overloading at Tan Son Nhat International Airport in Ho Chi Minh City, currently the country’s largest airport.

In another case, in October 2020 the 5.37-km Mai Dich-South Thang Long flyover at Pham Van Dong street in Hanoi was opened to traffic, helping ease chronic traffic jams.

The VND5.34 trillion ($232.1 million) project connects the inner city with Thang Long Bridge and Vo Van Kiet Road to Noi Bai International Airport, and also connects the city’s big industrial zones and Hanoi with northern provinces, making it easier to transport goods.

Not far from this flyover, another one was inaugurated last August with the total investment capital of VND560 billion ($24.3 million), crossing Hoang Quoc Viet and Nguyen Van Huyen streets. The flyover is lengthened by a new road that meets with Samsung’s $220-million research and development project.

Besides prioritising public investment projects in 2021, the government will also focus on attracting more FDI as one of the key pillars for economic growth this year.

Deputy Minister Phuong said that despite causing serious aftermath in Vietnam, the health crisis seems not to be able to prevent FDI inflows to Vietnam in the long term, and an increasing manufacturing industry in the country. These are big drivers of Vietnam’s economic growth this year and beyond.

“Many major foreign groups and companies are eyeing the Vietnamese market, which is succeeding in controlling COVID-19 – this has strengthened their confidence in the market,” Phuong said. “The pandemic is only slowing down FDI inflows into the country. Many projects are temporarily halted, and will be strongly implemented when the pandemic eases.”

He expected that there will be many foreign investors coming to Vietnam as the prime minister has allowed foreign experts into the country to implement projects. “FDI is also contributing greatly to boosting exports,” he said.

Vietnam attracted $28.53 billion in newly-registered, newly-added, and stake-purchased, and capital contribution-based FDI in 2020, with the total disbursed FDI hitting $20 billion.

According to Do Nhat Hoang, director of the MPI’s Foreign Investment Agency, nearly 300 enterprises from many nations are planning to expand their existing investment or exploring investment opportunities in the country. Of this, more than 60 groups have reaped initial results in new and expanded investment projects here. Initial information showed that the total registered capital of these projects will likely be over $60 billion.

“This is quite a good signal that international investors are showing big interest in doing business in Vietnam,” Hoang said.

Larger frame of mind for logistics

Throughout more than three decades of economic reform, Vietnamese companies from many sectors have been venturing abroad and become role models. Yet, the logistics sector remains too focused on the domestic market. Tran Thanh Hai, deputy director of the Ministry of Industry and Trade’s Agency of Foreign Trade, emphasised that local players should follow regional examples and take their business to international arena.

In this context, logistics activities were affected significantly, with railways, roads, and air transport being the most heavily affected, while waterways and warehouses remained largely unscathed and even saw growing business due to rising inventory.

Different from five years ago, logistics have been given due attention by all state levels, as shown in the directive documents of the government, ministries, and branches, that all considered logistics a crucial aspect of the economy. From there, policy changes and significant investments in infrastructure could be accomplished, along with the easing of administrative procedures for businesses in this sector.

However, one of the current challenges is the lack of large-scale Vietnamese enterprises with influence in the logistics industry, while large foreign-invested enterprises (FIEs) such as FedEx, UPS, and DHL from the United States and Europe dominating the country’s logistics sector.

In Vietnam, telecom, real estate, and manufacturing enterprises have built outstanding businesses that drive their respective industries. Within the logistics sphere, however, there is no such role model.

Companies like Saigon Newport, Gemadept JSC, Transimex JSC, and Sotrans Co., Ltd. are contributing their share but can hardly be called outstanding yet. The general picture of today’s businesses is stiffening, with competing FIEs operating in Vietnam, while those from other countries are integrating into global markets.

Additionally, the domestic logistics sector remains rather small with limited international operations, while this industry is really about going global and partaking in imports and exports. So far, the number of Vietnamese enterprises operating in foreign markets is also small, with even the bigger names not providing services to foreign markets. In the era of global integration, we must go to the world to develop, and thus this remains the Achilles heel of the domestic industry. Moreover, weak links with other service providers elsewhere have not been established and utilised sufficiently. Although Vietnamese manufacturers have been able to export goods to Europe in large volumes, there is no logistical presence of local companies.

As such, logistics groups stop all operations at Vietnam’s gates, after selling and delivering goods to customers, resulting in low added value and a lack of competitiveness against foreign counterparts.

Against this backdrop, the largest difficulties relate not to capital but to the awareness of Vietnamese entrepreneurs, who are typically shy in new environments, especially when confronting foreigners. Many businesses dare to run their operations but mostly focus on the domestic market as they feel that doing business in their own country is easier. Problems here can be handled the familiar Vietnamese way, while they would have to follow foreign rules outside and establish new personal networks and relations. Within the current logistics community, FIEs and state-owned enterprises are relatively stable, but the private sector consists mainly of small-scale businesses, with some newly established or separated from others.

In Vietnam, the number of FIEs is increasing constantly, with nearly 40 multinational corporations and many smaller ones present in the market. However, companies from Japan and South Korea are very ethnocentric and prefer to use the services of their country’s enterprises, which support and protect each other. Meanwhile, European and American businesses are somewhat more open-minded. They use traditional services but do not pay much attention to their partners’ country of origin. Multinationals have financial advantages, so it is easier for them to establish a foundation and attract high-quality human resources than it is for domestic ones. They also make great use of experienced CEOs.

The great advantage of FIEs is their cooperative relationship with partners worldwide. From these relationships, they provide most of the services requested by manufacturers at competitive prices. The service quality of these enterprises is often at a higher level than that of domestic ones, reflected in their professionalism, the assurance of standardised service quality, and strict rules and norms, which provide credibility for these businesses.

Those businesses also pay special attention to customer care and focus on the long-term benefits, instead of immediate returns. Therefore, at some stages, they even accept losses to win customers’ sympathy and build a reputation. Meanwhile, some Vietnamese businesses follow a fast-paced approach that aims for quick profits rather than long-term relationships and market presence. Such a mentality will also not pay attention to quality.

According to one of the prime minister’s decisions, it is a crucial task to form strong logistics groups and leading companies. Vietnam has a convenient location, with a long coastline, and the entire facade of the Southeast Asian peninsula serves not only as a service point for transit to and from China, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Myanmar but is also a stopover transshipment point for major transports from Europe to Australia and from Northeast Asia to South Asia. Currently, the other regional countries take advantage of this though they do not have the same premises as Vietnam.

With a growth rate of 12-14 per cent per year, Vietnam’s logistics sector is growing, albeit merely gradually. It may take another 5-10 years to see strong differences today. As this speed remains slow, Vietnam’s logistics needs to go faster to avoid lagging behind other countries.

Up to now, Vietnam’s logistics growth has mainly relied on the scale of commodity production, consumption, and import-export, which are natural factors for growth advantages. However, these are not intrinsic factors of the logistics sector, they are just objective ones.

If one of these factors changes – such as COVID-19, natural disasters, and the declining domestic demand – the sector’s growth will suffer if it is not well established in foreign markets.

Thus, Vietnamese groups need to step out of their comfort zone, adapt quickly, and avoid thinking of themselves as small and inferior. Small does not mean weak.

At present, Vietnamese enterprises focus only on the domestic market, and give little thought to venturing abroad. Meanwhile, I am confident that Vietnam’s logistics can provide decent services to the regional market, such as Laos, Cambodia, and Thailand – all of which are close by and of similar development levels. Vietnam already has top enterprises in leather, footwear, steel, and automobiles. Thus, the logistics sector can build on their experience and develop leading groups from those sectors.

Singapore can also be a good example for Vietnam. Its government was determined to put all its advantages into developing the logistics sector and to turn Singapore into the largest transshipment port in the world. To do that, Singapore has largely sacrificed marine tourism. Nowadays, the island nation is housing some of the leading enterprises in logistics fields. It boasts PSA Co., Ltd., the world’s largest port operator, which also has a joint venture in Vietnam’s Cai Mep port complex in the south.

In the aviation industry, it has Singapore Airlines – a 5-star airline which for many years maintained its position as the world’s leading airline. Before the pandemic hit, Changi Airport was consistently one of the busiest airports in the world.

Another model is Taiwan, which has strong logistics development. Of course, there are also more developed economies like Japan or Germany whose level of development is already at a much higher level. The country needs it, the government needs it, and the businesses that want to grow strong also need to be bold and venture abroad with an outward-looking spirit. Vietnam opened its doors to global integration 35 years ago, but it is now up to businesses to step out or not. The government alone cannot do this.

Power structure balance required

Vietnam’s energy sector has been developing rapidly throughout the last few years, in which renewables show the strongest development. However, the existing imbalance between power generation and transmission threatens the national power supply. As such, relevant government agencies are now tasked with finding sustainable approaches to tackle the situation.

GENCO 1 has an installed capacity of over 7,120MW, which stems from several sources such as coal, hydroelectricity, and solar power. Nguyen Manh Huan, deputy general director of GENCO 1, said that his company is now facing risks of not being able to recover investment costs under the electricity price plan. This development left a huge impact on GENCO 1’s finances as the company added many new sources of renewable energy in a short time, causing its thermal power plants to not reach its designated 6,000 hours per year.

Becoming a leading corporation in the energy sector has become a more challenging target for GENCO 1 in the context of the complicated developments during the COVID-19 pandemic and decreasing water flows towards hydroelectric reservoirs due to climate change.

The scale of Vietnam’s electricity system ranks second in Southeast Asia and 23rd in the world, with total installed capacity by the end of 2020 reaching 69,300MW, an increase of nearly 14,000MW compared to 2019, according to the calculation of state-run Electricity of Vietnam (EVN).

The total capacity of renewable energy sources amounts to 17,430MW, a stunning increase of 11,780MW compared to 2019, which accounts now for a quarter of all national power sources.

However, the asynchronous development between renewable energy and the national power grid throughout the last few years has caused Vietnam’s lines to be overloaded, affecting the mobilisation of traditional power sources, peak hour changes, and transmission rates.

Specifically, La Hong Ky, an expert from the National Steering Committee for Electricity Development told VIR that the biggest disadvantage of solar power is its instability, due to its heavy dependence on weather.

“Meanwhile, the cost of this power source is still high, energy storage is difficult, and the necessary land area is often large, as one megawatt peak of solar power needs roughly 1.2 hectares,” Ky said.

He explained that many solar investors have asked for additional planning and quickened project implementation, leading to an asynchronous development of solar power within the overall structure of renewable energy. “For instance, up to now no document or guidance is regulating the percentage between solar and rooftop solar power sources,” Ky added.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade’s (MoIT) data from reviewing the implementation of the previous four years of power development shows that thermal power sources only grew by 57.6 per cent while renewable energy sources rose by up to 205 per cent. The completion rate of 500kV transformer stations came out at 73 per cent, while 88 per cent of 500kV transmission lines were established, 77 per cent of 220kV stations, and 84 per cent of 220kV transmission lines.

“Renewable energy has grown too hot,” claimed Bui Huy Phung, a senior expert from the Vietnam Institute of Energy Science under the Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology.

During Vietnam’s electricity development up to 2020, the country has formulated two national energy development strategies; seven national electricity development plans; five coal industry development plans; three oil and gas development plans, and one renewable energy plan. According to Phung, these strategies and plans have guided and provided important contents for the development of the energy sector in Vietnam.

However, they also show the inadequacies of applied methodology, a lack of systematisation and computational data, and their appliance to the construction, appraisal, and implementation of power projects, which then usually lasted only a few years before they needed adjustment.

Although the aforementioned electricity plans were calculated meticulously, they still present inadequacies. The current energy intensity to GDP (kWh per US dollar) of many countries is currently at 0.3-0.6kWh per US dollar, while Vietnam’s is approximately as high as 1. During the past few years, the country was required to decrease this ratio from 1.5-1.6 to 1, with previous forecasts and actual results showing that the ratio cannot be further reduced without adjustments.

Additionally, the power grid had to be built in a rush, which was difficult to implement and led to many projects not meeting their desired progression. The plans of power plants for 2020 were behind schedule by 1-2 years, with the biggest slowdown happening in the projects of the country’s state-run oil and gas group PetroVietnam. Nevertheless, reports from the MoIT and EVN still stated that the entire national electricity supply in 2020 was basically guaranteed.

Meanwhile, the demand for coal as a resource for electricity is huge, with an estimated 78 million tonnes by 2020 and 190 million tonnes by 2030. Yet, it remains unknown where the supply is supposed to come from.

The total investment in the electricity sector in the 2011-2020 period amounted to $48.8 billion, of which 33 per cent was reserved for the national grid. In the 2021-2030 period, the total investment will be around $75 billion, of which 34 per cent is planned to be used for the national grid.

Thus, within 20 years with the total investment of $123.8 billion, only a third have and will flow into the grid, which, in turn, explains the transmission gaps in recent years.

Considering the data from the previous four years, the MoIT’s Institute of Energy is now making preparations for a new national power plan.

“Considering the previous plan, most power and grid projects have not met the set goals, with only renewable energy – mainly solar and wind – exceeding the plan by over 200 per cent,” Phung commented.

The impact of this imbalance, according to Phung, can lead to disturbances in regional and national planning, making it difficult for the transmission and control of the system, as some areas are overloaded during the day while at night it could be difficult to ensure electricity supply.

Meanwhile, in principle, ensuring energy security often needs to be based on several factors, such as forecasts of the power demand in relation to the country’s socioeconomic development plans, the domestic availability of energy sources, including renewable energy and import capacities, and a pricing scheme suitable for the development level of the country.

The issue of sustainable power source development has been recognised in all countries, especially as the consequences of climate change and depletion of many traditional energy sources become ever so visible. As a result, most countries are transforming their energy use structures towards a sustainable direction while increasing social equality in access.

To regain the balance in its power source structure, Phung said, “It is important to calculate Vietnam’s power grid planning and compliance with socioeconomic development. Vietnam can only achieve sustainable development when the contents of such plans are carefully calculated and define the demand and structure for optimal and rational use of electricity sources.”

Specifically, the MoIT is directing the creation of the Power Development Plan VIII – the master plan that will concretise the Politburo’s Resolution No.55-NQ/TW on the orientation of Vietnam’s national energy development strategy to 2030, with a vision towards 2045.

The Institute of Energy announced its initial results from the first workshop last July, which include methods, documents, and 11 electricity development scenarios for the country.

However, Phung, who has more than 40 years of expertise on energy, remarked that it is necessary to clarify the MoIT’s concept of “soft planning” in the next plan, while also considering specific solutions for the imbalance in national power development.

Economy shows positive signals at the beginning of the year

2021 has been identified as the year of economic recovery in Vietnam with a growth rate target of 6.5% set by the Government, 0.5 percentage points higher than thatassigned by the National Assembly, requiring the whole political system to drastically take part right from the first days and quarter of the year.

In the first month of 2021, the economic outlook showed positive signals. Specifically, the industrial production index in January 2021 increased by 22.2% over the same period last year; export revenue of goods increased by 50.5%, of which six items achieved revenue of more than US$1 billion, accounting for 67.3% of total export turnover. The disbursement of public investment capital increased by 24.5%.

Notably, business registration activity grew impressively on the index of newly established enterprises, registered capital and labour, thereby adding more than VND395 trillion in investment capital to the economy, up 10.5% over the same period last year.

In terms of the attraction of foreign direct investment (FDI), some localities continue to attract high-tech projects, such as Foxconn’s US$270 million project in the northern province of Bac Giang. The fact that Foxconn, one of the largest manufacturers of electronic components and computers in the world, specialising in Apple products, invested in Vietnam at this time has strengthened the confidence of international investors in the country’s investment and business environment.

Meanwhile, foreign enterprises investing in Vietnam are also more optimistic about their business prospects. For example, in its latest survey results, the Japan Trade Promotion Organisation (JETRO) have announced that 46.8% of Japanese enterprises will expand production and business in Vietnam in the next one to two years, thanks to optimistic forecasts about potential growth in domestic and export sales as well as high levels of growth in general.

However, the economy is also facing risk as the COVID-19 epidemic reappeared in the community at the end of January. Industrial production has not recovered as quickly as it did before the epidemic. Enterprises continue to lack production materials. Many export markets have not been able to recover because major economies in the world continue to restrict imports due to social distancing and border closures.

The service sector has not yet recovered and continues to face difficulties even before the new wave of the pandemic. According to calculations by the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI), if the COVID-19 epidemic is promptly controlled in the first quarter of the year, it is estimated GDP in the first quarter of 2021 will increase by 4.46%, 0.66 percentage points lower than the target set out in Government Resolution No. 1 on the main tasks and solutions to realise the socio-economic development plan and State budget estimates in 2021.

In order to achieve the set growth target, the MPI proposethe Government should continue to make disease prevention and control a top priority, ensuring the health of the people as well as limiting the negative impacts caused by the epidemic on the economy.

Socio-economic development solutions must be implemented by ministries, branches and localities in a more urgent and drastic manner. The independence and self-reliance of the economy should be enhanced in the new situation.

Specifically, new strategies and policies should be devised to promote innovation, apply science and technology to seizing opportunities opened by the Fourth Industrial Revolution; research, monitor and update new trends, models and policies from countries that impact Vietnam, improve the internal capacity, self-reliance and resilienceof the economy. The MPI is currently completing a master plan on improving the internal capacity and self-reliance of the economy and will soon submit it to the Government.

M&A activities still buoyant

At a recent seminar, Tran Thanh Tung, partner lawyer of Global Vietnam Lawyers, said with a range of regulations in the Investment Law, the Enterprise Law, the Securities Law and the Competition Law, businesses seeking M&A deals seem to be obliged to join a hurdle race, as they have to comply with many administrative procedures to reach the finish line. Each law has a different angle on M&A.

Of note, while the 2020 Enterprise Law, to be effective from 2021, has modifications towards betterment and openness for investors and regulations to protect them, the Competition Law restricts M&A activities with the requirement for reporting the threshold of economic concentration with criteria for total assets and total revenue from sale or purchase in Vietnam, the value of transactions and the combined market share of businesses in the relevant market, as stated in Decree 35/2020 effective since May 15, 2020. According to Mr. Tung, this threshold of economic concentration is low, and in reality, there may be abuse of the reporting, which makes M&A transactions more complex and costly.

Dr. Nguyen Quoc Vinh, partner lawyer of Tilleke & Gibbins, argued that many businesses will have to report on economic concentration, as the threshold is quite low. The risk for relevant parties who “forget reporting” is they will be penalized by State agencies.

Nguyen Thi Vinh Ha, deputy general director and head of the corporate advisory division of Grant Thornton Vietnam, told the Saigon Times that she has seen a number of cases where businesses are impacted by the regulation for economic concentration. Though their M&A deals are small, those businesses operate in the niche market (providing a certain product) within a larger market. In view of the niche market for that product, they hold a relatively large share. However, viewed from the larger market, they are completely out of the scope of economic concentration. Nevertheless, with the current regulation, they still have to submit a report on economic concentration, which has significantly obstructed the progress and the likelihood of success of the M&A deal.

Ms. Ha said the regulation has also caused difficulties for other cases of M&A activities. For instance, parties who have reached the threshold of economic concentration for the shares auctioned by divested State-owned enterprises must do the reporting. What matters is the compliance will cost businesses a lot but the success in the auction is still uncertain. Further, the time for assessment of economic concentration by the National Committee for Competition may be longer than the maximum time when the businesses joining the auction must make a public offer.

At the present time, Ms. Ha stressed, the fact that the National Committee for Competition is not yet established, concrete guidelines are not yet available, competent agencies do not have experience in assessment and interpretations about the concept of  “the market for relevant products” are not yet clear is causing many difficulties for M&A activities. Businesses are at a loss to determine whether their deals are subject to reporting and they may have to wait for a long time for feedback from competent agencies. “We observed that under the new regulation, the combined market share is not the only factor to determine whether an M&A deal is prohibited or not, as it needs assessment of many other factors. All has created a heavier obligation for demonstration for parties to M&A deals,” Ms. Ha said.

At the seminar, Dinh Anh Tuyet, director of the law firm IDVN, said businesses may feel uneasy to do reporting on economic concentration, but this is a necessary and not so fearful job. Besides criteria for assets, revenue from sale and purchase, and market share expressed by numbers, there are also other analyses. With a complicated M&A deal which takes a lot of time for completion, it’s regretful if it is subject to the regulation for abolishment due to failure to complete the procedure for reporting on economic concentration. In addition, the fine for violation by the business concerned amounts to 5% of its revenue in the relevant market in the year before the year of the violation.

A concrete example is Grab’s acquisition of Uber in Singapore. The two parties determined that they were not at the threshold to report on economic concentration and did not do the reporting. Afterwards, competent authorities in Singapore determined that they were at the threshold and fined them several million Singapore dollars.

Nevertheless, Ms. Tuyet commented that regardless of the new regulation, M&A activities will continue, as investors will consider the market prospect and M&A parties have strong legal teams to ensure compliance.

Justin Gizs, member of the legal council under the European Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam (Eurocham), said the legal factor must be attended to because it is the decisive factor to facilitate M&A deals, especially those with foreign involvement. EU investors highly appreciate the Vietnamese market and want to enjoy appropriate, favorable policies under the Vietnamese legal framework to boost M&A activities.

Ms. Ha from Grant Thornton Vietnam noted that apart from the legal factors, a more important factor is the market. Vietnam now has a significant position and advantages when the country has duly coped with Covid-19, maintaining safety for her economic activities. Further, Vietnam is emerging as a convincing alternative destination for foreign enterprises seeking to move their operations out of China. Therefore, she thought that M&A activities will continue to be buoyant in 2021.

New Covid-19 outbreak dents Vietnam’s hospitality recovery

The latest outbreak of Covid-19, which began in late January, has put an immediate impact on Vietnam’s hospitality business with numerous cancellations across the country, not only in the affected destinations but anywhere with access via an airport.

The outbreak has seen preventative measures reinstated nationwide. In many localities, containment measures have been back, with greater focus on hygiene, mask wearing, hand washing, and restrictions of unnecessary travel and social gatherings, according to Savills Hotels APAC.

January started on a positive note, with city hotels seeing increased MICE (meeting, incentive, conference and event) bookings while in some resorts, corporate bookings started to return.

The market in 2021 is expected to be broadly similar with most of 2020, at least until borders reopen to leisure and business. Hotels have adapted by considerably reducing operating costs to establish lower breakeven points.

“Prior to these local transmissions, the industry was anticipating increased travel demand during and after the Tet holiday, which would have been a good start to the year. However, the situation has changed everything,” said Mauro Gasparotti, director of Savills Hotels APAC.

Travel interests are diminishing in a mist of uncertainty with air travel demand dropping 15% immediately after the news release. The Tan Son Nhat International Airport in HCMC estimated a sharp drop of 26.5% in air passenger traffic over the Tet holiday compared to last year. Online flight search demand to Danang and HCMC during this peak period of the year dropped over 30%, according to OTA Insight.

Some companies immediately enforced travel restrictions, with requests to limit attending events or large gatherings. This has directly affected MICE business in city hotels, where several conferences have been put on hold or delayed. Drive-to destinations have also been affected by weekend cancellations.

“The resurgence of local Covid-19 transmission once again demonstrates its immediate impact on the tourism industry. Travel agencies and hotels are no longer surprised with “the unexpected” but this happening right before the Tet holiday has hurt public travelling interests,” said Mauro Gasparotti.

“With the Government speeding up vaccine testing and imports, I hope the situation is soon under control. Hospitality is highly vulnerable to adverse effects. It will only be when people feel confident and safe enough to travel when recovery will truly be underway,” he added.

Covid-19 has caused significant disruption to the Vietnamese tourism industry. In 2020, international arrivals of just 3.8 million were down 78% compared to 2019, while the 56 million domestic travelers were down 34%.

Performance of hotels and resorts slumped, with many forced into temporary closure. Occupancy and average daily rates both dropped, resulting in revenues being down 70% compared to 2019.

In Hanoi, average occupancy of 32% compared to the average of 80% last year, while in HCMC it dropped from 72% in 2019 to 23%. The average occupancy of 62% country wide in 2019 collapsed to just 24% in 2020.

2020: A success, 2021: An unkown

Although it failed to fulfill the year’s targets, Vietnam’s export is not only a key growth driver for the economy but also a rising star on the international marketplace.

A government report submitted to the National Assembly last October projected the export growth in 2020 at only 3.5-4% In reality, the total export sales for the whole year might amount to US$281 billion, posting a growth rate of 6.5%.

Compared to the 7% growth target, Vietnam almost made it. This was the third time during the past 10 years the country failed to achieve this important goal. Nevertheless, in the context that the domestic market was gloomy due to Covid-19, export still played an important role in enabling the economy to reach an overall growth rate of 2.91%.

First of all, instead of attaining an average growth rate of 13.4% per year as in the past 10 years, Vietnam’s total retail sales and service and consumption revenue in 2020 are estimated to rise only 2.4%; and if compared to gross domestic product (GDP), export accounted for 82.6%, up 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, whereas the total amount of retail sales, services and consumption revenue were just 63.5%, down 1.1 percentage points.

In other words, instead of contributing 52% to the output of economic growth in 2019, export in 2020 made up 66.4% of the output economic growth, while the domestic market with nearly 100 million consumers contributed 33.6% (instead of 48%) because of Covid-19.

Vietnam’s growth rate higher than that of the top-40 exporting countries in the world during the past decade (2010-2019) helped Vietnam pick up a staggering 18 notches—from the 41st to the 23rd—in the list of 50 nations having the largest exports in the world compiled by the World Trade Organization (WTO). It is very likely that Vietnam’s position in 2020 will be further improved.

Secondly, while export growth rate was positive, import tended to be stagnant despite a year-on-year surge of 22.7% in December. As a result, Vietnam obtained a record high trade surplus of US$19.1 billion in 2020.

It should be emphasized here that the argument which asserts a decrease in import will give rise to an increase in trade surplus associated with a shortage of materials for production is probably groundless. Statistics show that the total import spending of 18 commodities was over US$51 billion, down 11.3% from 2019, but compared with 2019 prices, Vietnam benefited more than US$25 billion. That means if the price decrease was excluded, the import value would rise by 32.3% while import volume would rise by 12%.

This indicates that the record trade surplus comes from the fact that Vietnam has accelerated export plus the “basket of imports” includes many groups of goods having sharp price decrease, which help Vietnam earn huge profits from price fluctuations in the world.

Meanwhile, the “basket of exports” shows that the processing and manufacturing industry contributed a great deal to the record trade surplus. In 2017, Vietnam incurred a trade deficit of US$6.5 billion from these groups of goods; the country saw a trade surplus of US$4.7 billion in 2018; the figure soared to US$9.2 billion in 2019, and is estimated to reach US$14.5 billion in 2020.

Thirdly, viewed under the export market structure, the United States is perhaps a motive for Vietnam to obtain her export targets and trade surplus. It is estimated that export turnover to this market in 2020 will reach US$76 billion, accounting for 27.2% of the total export revenue to the world, whereas import spending will be around US$13.5 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of US$62.9 billion with the U.S.

Meanwhile, Vietnam suffered huge trade deficit with China and South Korea, US$35.4 billion and US$27.5 billion, respectively.

Unknown for 2021

It is forecast that the world economy post-Covid-19 will recover this year, but the recovery process will not be the same for all nations, especially less positive for the U.S. and European countries. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecast that while GDP of the emerging economies and developing countries increases 6.05%, that of developed countries rises just 3.6%. This is not a positive signal for Vietnam’s export prospect in 2021.

The U.S. and Europe are the major export markets of Vietnam, so their slow recovery makes it hard for Vietnam to boost export into these countries.

In addition, the fact that the U.S. designates Vietnam as a currency manipulator—although it has not yet exerted any impact on Vietnam’s export stateside—will prompt Vietnamese exporters and importers to be cautious, not to mention the possibility that Vietnam will find it harder to enjoy a big trade surplus again after such allegation.

To cope with the currency manipulation label, Vietnam will have to prevent goods that are deliberately disguised in made-in-Vietnam brands from being exported to the U.S. Therefore, if the fight against origin fraud is more successful, exports will decrease proportionately.

Furthermore, though the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) took effect a few months ago, the possibility to increase exports to this market is still much to be desired because the downward trend in 2020 still continues and the economy in this bloc is still mired in trouble in 2021.

In such context, export increase should be focused on Asian markets, particularly the member countries of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). However, this is a formidable mission.

Statistics show that in the first 11 months of last year, Vietnam exported goods worth some US$103 billion into these regional markets, but imported nearly US$167 billion from them. Her two major partners were China and South Korea, with tremendous trade deficit. Vietnam also suffered lower trade deficit with the remaining 12 partners. These were Vietnam’s problems for years, so the hope to increase exports into these regional markets is almost impossible, especially in the short run.

In other words, decreasing trade deficit in the short run should rely on the result of the fight against origin fraud. In the long run, it should rely on the development of supporting industries as well as industrial sectors producing materials to enjoy preferential tariffs as stipulated in the EVFTA.

Given the recovery of the world economy in 2021, it is likely that prices of goods on the world market will rise, and Vietnam’s exports will not suffer from low prices as in 2020. However, her imports will not enjoy advantages in terms of prices, and she will no longer attain high trade surplus as in 2020. The soar of import in the final month of last year might be a “reverse” signal in the balance of trade in 2021, or might at least indicate that trade surplus would not be as high as in 2020.

In short, if there is no breakthrough in the fight against Covid-19 around the world, it will be hard for Vietnam to accelerate export in 2021, whereas import will soar, resulting in a decrease in trade surplus.

HCMC’s tourism sector in distress

The average hotel room occupancy is less than 10% while travel businesses have reported massive Tet tour delays and cancellations, according to the HCMC Department of Tourism. Tourist sites and entertainment areas in the city are not as crowded as in previous years due to Covid-19.

Guests started to delay or cancel tours from January 28 when Covid-19 reemerged in the northern provinces of Quang Ninh and Hai Duong. Only a few agreed to reshedule their travel plans.

“The Tet tourism season this year is worse than that of last year,” according to the HCMC Department of Tourism’s report. Last year, when Tet came, Covid-19 also broke out in Vietnam. All inbound, outbound and domestic tours were gradually cancelled till March 2020.

The report also said that the average room occupancy of hotels in HCMC was less than 10%.

During the Tet holidays, the tourist sites such as Dam Sen, Van Thanh, Binh Quoi and Suoi Tien have been temporarily closed. Many entertainment areas have also scaled down their operations to ensure safety.

Indonesia imposes anti-dumping tariffs on cold steel sheet from Vietnam

It is the final conclusion of an Indonesian agency for cold steel sheet imported from Vietnam.

The Indonesian Anti-dumping Committee (KADI) will impose anti-dumping tariffs on cold-rolled steel imports from Vietnam and China after a 16-month investigation, according to the Trade Remedies Authority of Vietnam under the Ministry of Industry and Trade.

The anti-dumping duties of 3.01-49.2% on steel imports from Vietnam will affect Vietnamese major exporters including Hoa Sen and Ton Dong A Corporation which will pay 5.34% and 3.01%, respectively, according to the Trade Remedies Authority of Vietnam (TRAV).

Earlier, the TRAV was informed by the KADI that Vietnam’s cold steel sheet manufacturers are  selling their products in Indonesian market at less than fair value which has caused injury to Indonesian cold steel sheet companies.

In August 2019, the Indonesian committee announced an anti-dumping investigation on aluminum coated steel imports from Vietnam and China.

Immediately, the TRAV sent a letter protesting some contents in the draft conclusion of KADI which it said unreasonable. Specifically, some conclusions are inconsistent, not reflecting the actual situation of Vietnamese enterprises such as value added tax, duplication in calculations. These inaccuracies have led to a high margin of dumping and is detrimental to Vietnamese enterprises.

Then, on August 24 2020, KADI decided to extend the investigation for another six months as the agency needed more time to conduct thorough probe.

Hanoi tax revenue from e-commerce surges by five times

Increasing online shopping has resulted in higher tax revenue.

The amount of tax collected from e-commerce activities in 2020 was five times higher than in 2019, as online shopping has become more popular among Hanoi’s consumers, according to the Hanoi Tax Department.

The city earned a VND123 billion (US$5.3 million) tax revenue from e-commerce last year. Some individuals willingly declared their earnings and paid millions of dollars in personal income taxes.

Last year, the tax authorities have tightened supervision over e-commerce activities in accordance with the amended Law on Tax Administration, which requires individuals doing business via internet to declare income and pay tax. The law took effect  on July 1, 2020.

A 28-year-old girl, in Cau Giay district, declared an income  of VND330 billion (US$14.4 million) and paid VND23.4 billion (US$1 million).

A man, 30 years old, in Cau Giay district, earned VND260 billion (US$11.3 million)  from writing applications for Google Play and App Store, and paid tax of VND18.1 billion (US$787,342).

“Online selling has developed well in recent years. Among online businesses, a lot of young individuals, especially students have also applied technology to do business, profited from the model and paid a huge amount of tax,” Director of the Tax Sub-Department of Cau Giay district Le Quang Hung said. “In this difficult context, it is a great contribution of taxpayers to the socio-economic development of the city.”

This year, the municipal Tax Department continues to coordinate with commercial banks and trading platforms to collect data and instruct e-commerce operators to fulfill their tax obligations, Director of the Hanoi Tax Department Mai Son said.

The department will also enhance the supervision of income for better tax collection. The law  stipulates that credit institutions and commercial banks should provide information about taxpayers’ accounts to the taxation department.

In 2017, the department sent 13,000 messages to subscribers who posted physical addresses for selling goods on social media.  As the result, more than 2,000 traders on social networks have registered for tax filing.

Source: VNA/VNS/VOV/VIR/SGT/Nhan Dan/Hanoitimes