Pandemic epicenter

Hanoi (VNA) – Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh has sent a letter of greetings to Khmer people in Vietnam on the occasion of Chol Chnam Thmay, their traditional New Year festival .

The Government leader extended his best wishes to the community as well as to Khmer dignitaries.

He noted that 2020 was a tough year for Vietnam due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but with the joint efforts of the political system, people, and enterprises, it recorded important and comprehensive achievements in both socio-economic development and pandemic control, becoming one of the 16 most successful newly-emerging economies in the world and enhancing its international position.

For the first time, a project and a national target programme were designed to boost socio-economic development in mountainous and ethnic minority-inhabited areas, Chinh said.

The success of the 13th National Party Congress as well as the second national congress of Vietnam’s ethnic minority groups also reinforced confidence among the country’s 54 ethnic minority groups in the Party and the State, he added.

The government leader expressed his belief that with the strict implementation of COVID-19 prevention measures, the Khmer people will have an enjoyable Chol Chnam Thmay festival and promote their cultural identity.

The PM also expressed his hope that the community will continue to promote patriotism and make more contributions to the country’s socio-economic development targets.

Also to mark the occasion, on April 13 a working group from the National Assembly’s Council for Ethnic Minority Affairs, led by its Chairman Ha Ngoc Chien, visited and extended greetings to the Khmer people in the Mekong Delta province of Tra Vinh, where more than 300,000 Khmer people, or nearly 32 percent of the population, live.

Chol Chnam Thmay is celebrated each year from April 14 to 16. Buddhist followers gather at pagodas to perform traditional rituals throughout the festival./.

VNA

Bad debts decreased

Profit reports of commercial banks in Q1 of this year all hit the mark of several trillion Vietnamese dongs. Specifically, HDBank has just announced that its estimated pre-tax profit in the first quarter exceeded VND2 trillion, up more than 67 percent compared to the same period last year. Of which, profit from services was two times higher than that in the same period for the third consecutive quarter. By March 31, this year, this lender’s credit growth rose by 5.2 percent compared to that by December 31, last year.

MBBank also informed that its profit was estimated at over VND4.57 trillion, 2.1 times higher than the same period last year. The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio dropped sharply from 1.46 percent at the beginning of the year to 1.14 percent.

At the annual general meeting of shareholders (AGM) in early April, ACB leaders said that its profit in Q1 was estimated at above VND3.1 trillion, up more than 61 percent. Sharing at the AGM 2021, MSB’s leaders informed that its net revenue in the first quarter was more than VND2 trillion, an increase of 65 percent year-on-year, leading to an estimated pre-tax profit of VND1.2 trillion, 315 percent higher than the same period last year.

As for the State-owned commercial banks, although the AGM has not been held, Vietcombank’s leaders said that its pre-tax profit in the first quarter was estimated at VND7 trillion, up 34 percent year-on-year and equal to 28 percent of the target of VND25.2 trillion set for the whole year. With a positive Q1 profit, its profit target set for 2021 is within reach. In fact, Vietcombank is assigned the highest credit target among State-owned banks with 10.5 percent while other banks are only at the level of 6-7.5 percent. Many experts said that VietinBank can achieve a profit of US$1 billion this year, thanks to the shift of retail channel and the reduction of the bad debt burden.

In a recent report of SSI Research Center, it is estimated that the pre-tax profit of listed banks in Q1 will increase from 55 percent to 65 percent compared to the same period last year. Of which, State-owned commercial banks will possibly achieve a growth of about 75-85 percent, and joint-stock commercial banks are expected to achieve pre-tax profit growth of about 45-55 percent. The reason for the high growth in Q1 was because lenders have maintained relatively attractive margins and credit prospects have been improved. In addition, most banks have accelerated the write-off of bad debts and increased provision for bad debts in the fourth quarter of last year.

Investors’ expectation of the banking industry’s profit picture is also the reason why banking stocks, namely CTG, VCB, ACB, and MSB, jumped by 40-50 percent in the first quarter.

Optimism in 2021

According to SSI Securities Company, currently, the net profit margins of banks are at a record high. Savings interest rates decreased by 2.25 percent per annum upwards in 2020, and in the first quarter of 2021, some banks continued to cut another 0.1-0.4 percent. These reductions focus on short-term deposits. Currently, most banks are keeping deposit interest rates at a level of 3-4 percent per annum for terms below six months, 3.5-5.5 percent per annum for terms from six to below 12 months, and 4.6-6 percent per annum for terms of 12 months upwards. Although the deposit interest rates sharply dropped to a record-low level, capital mobilization of commercial banks remained extremely positive. Banks’ loan-deposit gap from the beginning of 2020 to now has been strongly widened. Therefore, the net interest margin of most commercial banks had increased robustly in the second half of last year and is now at a historic high level of about 4 percent compared to the normal level of only 3.5 percent. This is one of the reasons why bank profits have soared.

With optimistic business results in Q1, many commercial banks continue to set high growth plans and are confident of completing their profit plans. According to the evaluation of the profit outlook of the banking industry in 2021 of FinnGroup Joint Stock Company, it is forecasted that the growth of after-tax profit of 12 listed commercial banks will be at 18.2 percent this year, higher than the growth of 14.9 percent last year. In which, State-owned banks are expected to have a strong increase in profits, such as Vietcombank with 14.9 percent, BIDV with 41.3 percent, and VietinBank with 41.9 percent. This positive outlook comes from both credit activities and service revenue, especially revenue from bancassurance of many banks, especially large banks like Vietcombank, VietinBank, ACB, MSB, and HDBank, said a representative of FinnGroup Company.

Besides, the representative of VNDirect Securities Company said that the State Bank of Vietnam has just issued Circular No.03/2021 amending and supplementing Circular No.01/2020 on restructuring, exemption, and debt rescheduling for customers affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. The circular also added a provision for a gradual 3-year allocation of provision for bad debts, which will also help reduce provision expenses for banks, especially in 2021. With the optimistic profitability of banks, banking stocks will still be one of the most potential stock groups in the stock market this year.

After a slow start, the CPTPP is now hoped to benefit Vietnam more

After two years of implementation, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) has created some positive initial impacts, especially in new markets, but benefits for Vietnam from remain modest.

Nguyen Cam Trang, deputy director of the Agency of Foreign Trade under the Ministry of Industry and Trade, said that the growth rate of exports to CPTPP markets was 7.2 per cent lower than the 8.4 per cent growth rate of exports worldwide in the same period.

There is very little information about the effects and impacts of the CPTPP on foreign-invested enterprises (FIEs), what they know about this agreement, and how to take advantage of it, as well as what is preventing them from accessing what is considered significant opportunities from the agreement.

In Vietnam, the effectiveness of the CPTPP depends partly on estimates and actions of foreign direct investment (FDI). Nguyen Thi Thu Trang, director of the WTO and International Trade Centre under the Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry (VCCI), noted differences in understanding the legal framework between domestic enterprises and FIEs. Meanwhile, the latter accounts for the highest proportion in imports and exports, with special relations regarding issues of investment protection and openness as well as methodical policy and legal matters.

“The biggest reason why Vietnamese businesses have not taken advantage of the incentives from this trade agreement is that they do not know about the tariff incentives under the CPTPP,” Trang said.

The CTTPP is an ambitious agreement that covers every important aspect of trade and investment. During the first period of implementation, FDI flowing into Vietnam has witnessed increases after a quiet period observing US-China trade tensions in 2019, as well as shifts in supply and production chains towards diversification.

In both trends, the inflow of FDI is expected to increase, especially in East Asia and Southeast Asia. The CPTPP is thus considered to be a favourable factor for the overall FDI attraction process. However, the results of attracting FDI during this period did so far not seem to reflect the trends.

Several problems have been identified from this unexpected fact. In 2019, Vietnam attracted approximately $9.5 billion in registered FDI from CPTPP countries, down nearly 36 per cent compared to 2018. While the total registered capital decreased, the number of new projects increased by 13 per cent compared to 2018, according to data from the Ministry of Planning and Investment.

The average size of new foreign-invested projects from CPTPP countries also fell sharply in 2019, from nearly $11 million per project in 2018 to about $4.7 million in 2019, down 56.9 per cent.

In terms of each partner, investment from Japan into Vietnam had the deepest drop in value from nearly $9 billion in 2018 to just over $4 billion in 2019, equivalent to a downfall of 52 per cent. In terms of speed, FDI decreased sharply from traditional sources such as Australia (down nearly 63 per cent) and Malaysia (down 50 per cent) as well as other markets.

Overall, 2019 was a year for Vietnam that seemed to be less optimistic in terms of attracting FDI through the CPTPP. While FDI from private CPTPP sources fell overall by nearly 36 per cent, newly attracted FDI from private CPTPP sources decreased by even over 61 per cent.

However, the results of attracting investment from CPTPP partners in 2020 were more positive than in 2019, as the Ministry of Planning and Investment recorded $11.8 billion last year.

Trang hoped that the government can make appropriate adjustments in a number of aspects to commit to all business sectors, supporting potential opportunities from the CTTPP that could become more feasible for investors.

However, it is the increase in FDI from the CPTPP in 2020 that has resulted in differing opinions. Some analysts think it is necessary to take a cautious look at the increase in FDI from CPTPP countries in 2020 as it seems to be overblown by comparison with the declines of 2019.

Others argue that the CPTPP and other free trade agreements are contributing to creating Vietnam’s own FDI attraction with transfers from China under the influence of the global health crisis.

CPTPP members, including Australia and Vietnam, have responded to the pandemic by fulfilling commitments to rules-based trade and maintaining open, informative, and transparent supply chains.

David Gottlieb, counsellor for economics and development cooperation of the Australian Embassy in Vietnam, commented that COVID-19 “present the global economy with an array of unprecedented challenges including to the principles of free and open trade.”

“But this crisis has demonstrated the importance of cooperation and strong trading relationships,” Gottlieb said at last week’s Hanoi-based CPTPP conference backed by the Aus4Reform programme aimed to support Vietnam’s reform efforts. “CPTPP members, including Vietnam and Australia, have responded to the crisis by demonstrating our commitment to rule-based trade and by maintaining open supply chains, active communication and transparency.

Fashion retailers like H&M have suffered from negative comments, photo Le Toan

As a consequence of integrating the “nine-dash line” map into online shopping websites in the Chinese market, a great number of local young people have called for a boycott on the Swedish fashion brand, causing a week-long desert atmosphere to drift over most of its outlets in Vietnam.

Xuan Huong, a 22-year-old student based in Hanoi, said that as soon as the case flared up, she became no longer interested in shopping with H&M.

“I was very disappointed,” Huong stressed. “I used to be a fan of the brand because of the reasonable prices and eye-catching designs of most items. But from now, I may never purchase anything from H&M due to its disrespect to Vietnamese consumers who they have earned from for more than three years.”

Dung Thang, a 25-year-old officer in the capital’s Ba Dinh district said, “Before this incident I had no intentions to buy any items from H&M because their quality is not good while also being overpriced. Now, this case has only cemented my decision.”

Over a period of three days last week across Hanoi’s stores in Vincom Nguyen Chi Thanh and Vincom Mega Mall Royal City, there was a visible drop in the number of shoppers venturing into the store while visiting the malls. It was reported that customer numbers in other H&M outlets in Vincom Times City, AEON Hadong, and Vincom Mega Mall Ocean Park were slightly better, but not a patch on before the pandemic.

A staff member in Vincom Times City even revealed that the number of customers is fewer than in 2020 at times when people were more inclined to avoid going out unless necessary. “The store last year was even more crowded than now,” the staff member said.

Facing near emptiness for over a week, H&M Vietnam’s daily sales are at a large risk of seriously plunging, potentially interrupting its revenue targets in Vietnam for 2021. H&M’s financial report two years ago highlighted that the fashion brand earned on average VND3 billion ($130,000) per day based on revenues of VND1.12 trillion ($48.7 million) for eight stores at the time.

“We have yet to offer any statements for now,” said Pham Ngoc, head of Communications and PR at H&M Vietnam when asked about the potential trouble ahead.

Indeed, the fashion brand has experienced a tough time in Vietnam since early last year when the pandemic broke out. Its entire batch of establishments there had to close during social distancing, deepening the pressures on leasing and staff costs.

Over the second quarter of last year when the health crisis reached a peak, H&M’s net sales in the Vietnamese market was $7.77 million, down 32 per cent on-year, according to company reports covering the first six months of 2020.

Its revenue in other markets also dropped significantly during the timeline. In China, the clothes maker’s net earnings decreased by 28 per cent to $262 million. Nevertheless, the report noted, the country of 1.4 billion people remains its third-largest market, following Germany and the United States.

China takes on an even greater importance as H&M’s performance in Germany and the US are growing wearier, as reflected by revenues dropping by 42 per cent and 71 per cent, respectively.

In 2018, according to Bloomberg, the company declared high amounts of stockpiles worth $4 billion, equivalent to 17.6 per cent of its turnover of the year’s first quarter, while profit was at a 16-year low. As of February of that year, H&M’s net profit reduced to 44 per cent on-year, equivalent to $167.4 million.

Under pandemic-induced lockdowns, the brand has shut 250 stores across the globe since October – after already closing 140 stores in 2018. Along with H&M, other fashion retailers like Zara and Gap have been forced to close thousands of stores worldwide for the same reason.

Commenting on the prospects for the fashion industry, Benjamin Simmenauer, professor at the French Institute of Fashion in Paris, said that the sector will find it hard to rebound because fashion is dependent on the seasons and with designs changing quickly. “Brands are finding themselves left with huge stocks on their hands,” said Simmenauer.

Marguerite Le Rolland, an analyst at Euromonitor, also said that in the short-to-medium term, consumers’ need for fashion items “is going to be fairly diminished” due to the strong reduction of disposable income. “The pleasure and social aspect of shopping for fashion is going to be very difficult to maintain with social distancing measures still in place,” Rolland added.