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New normal adaptation

By Nguyen Dinh Bich

Overall, compared with the year-earlier period, although export sales reached US$48.7 billion, a three-fold increase (24.7% versus 8.7%), import value soared to US$47.1 billion, a jump of 9.5 times (26.4% versus 2.8%) – PHOTO: ANH QUAN

The new year has entered its second quarter and clear signs have been seen of a rapidly changing world market. In such a context, the Vietnamese economy, which has a high degree of openness despite its low economic development, has been strongly affected by import-export in an unprecedented way. How to cope with these fluctuations should therefore be taken into account.

Globally speaking, statistics obtained from the World Bank show that compared with the end of last year, the world power price climbed unexpectedly by 25.9% in February, Likewise, prices of non-fuel commodities rose by 7.1%, of which the price of farm produce rose by 6.4% (prices of cereals soared by 15%, prices of metals by 6.9% and prices of fertilizers by 26.9%, a record high). These hikes were very remarkable against 2020.

Given such conditions, Vietnam with her special basket of imports and exports will benefit significantly from exports. What’s more, she will suffer significantly from import activities, too.

Calculations from statistics released by the Vietnamese customs authorities over the past two months show that while Vietnam enjoyed US$285 million from her exports worth US$4.9 billion from 16 commodities with recorded quantities and value, she lost US$730 million in importing 18 commodities from the world market. That means Vietnam suffered a net loss of US$445 million, or 3% of the total import-export revenue of these groups of commodities. This is a completely reversing scenario from the year-ago period when Vietnam enjoyed significant net gains in exporting and importing these commodities.

A closer look shows that although during the past two months, export sales soared by 17.3% (US$4.9 billion versus US$4.2 billion), the increase would be only 10.5% (US$4.6 billion versus US$4.2 billion). Similarly, the import value of these commodities rose even higher, at 20.6% (US$9.98 billion versus US$8.3 billion). However, if adjusted to the price in the same period last year, the hike would be only 11.8% (US$9.25 billion versus US$8.3 billion).

What the above figures may indicate is world prices have contributed significantly to the amplification of Vietnam’s both import and export baskets.

Overall, compared with the year-earlier period, although export sales reached US$48.7 billion, a three-fold increase (24.7% versus 8.7%), import value soared to US$47.1 billion, a jump of 9.5 times (26.4% versus 2.8%).

It is this reason that Vietnam’s trade surplus has come down, absolutely and relatively, from US$1.82 billion in the year-ago period to US$1.64 billion now with the corresponding rate of 4.9% and 3.5%, respectively.

From all the above facts, the following conclusions can be drawn.

First, if the world prices continue their current trend in the coming months, Vietnam’s exports will rise. However, imports will outpace exports and trade surplus will decline. The possibility of a trade deficit cannot be ruled out in this context.

Second, all the above fluctuations will play a significant role in warming up the domestic market, which may prolong. The recent inflationary hike may be only the start of the process.

Two hidden corners

Aside from the above external affects, import-export fluctuations may come from the resonance of the following subjective factors.

First, although the new FTAs (Free Trade Agreements) have received heaps of praises, Vietnam’s import-export market still follows the same beaten track, if not worse.

Of the six markets which are Vietnam’s key foreign trade partners and are signatories in the new-generation FTAs, Vietnam saw the ratio of her total export sales to five of them—including China, Japan, South Korea, ASEAN and EU – 28 (EU plus Britain)—drop to 51.7% from 54.7% in the same period last year while the total import value from these markets rose from 71.9% to 74.5% year-on-year.

The only bright spot in this regard related to the Chinese market when the export ratio jumped from 14% to 16.4% year-on-year. However, this market was also the “darkest spot” when the ratio of imports soared from 24.9% to 32.7%.

Meanwhile, the ratio of export to the United States, Vietnam’s only key trading partner not to be governed by an FTA, also surged equally remarkably, from 26.3% to 28.4%. However, the ratio of import value from this market plummeted from 5.9% to 4.8%.

These wide fluctuations led to the fact that while Vietnam’s trade deficit with China was reinstated, trade surplus with the U.S. skyrocketed to a new record at US$11.6%.

Second, as far as groups of imports are concerned, agricultural-forestry-fishery commodities surged to US$4.25 billion posting a growth rate of 42.1% while their export value reached only US$6.27 billion and their growth rate was only a half, at 20.3%.

The import value of manufactured and processed commodities also rose to US$8.3 billion at a growth rate of 28.2%, slightly lower than export sales in this sector which were US$8.4 billion and posted a growth rate of 26.8%.

In this industry, there were two influential factors: imports from ASEAN climbed 1.88 times and China 1.77 times.

Of the group of manufactured and processed commodities, the relations between import from China and export to other markets were so clear. Imports from China over the past two months surged to US$5.83 billion (posting a growth rate of 69.8%). Meanwhile, exports of this group of commodities to the U.S. escalated to US$2.73 billion (63.9%); to other markets (excluding the six key markets) to US$2.36 billion (35.9%); and to EU – 28 to over US$1 billion (22.5%).

The most typical among this group of commodities was imports of machinery, equipment and other spare parts from China, which rose from US$1.98 billion to US$3.36 billion (ratio rising from 38% to 49.4%). Meanwhile, exports of the same commodities stateside rose from US$952 million to US$2.73 billion (from 30.4% to 48.8%).

To cut a long story short, although a strong rise in export should be encouraging, import also climbed sharply during the period, resulting in a shrinking trade surplus. Aside from fluctuating world prices, which are a force majeure, the possible reason was that the new-generation FTAs still failed to work effectively to boost export and restrict import. Consequently, only the U.S. market accounted for 36.9% of the hike of exports and only the Chinese market accounted for 62.2% of imports.

All considered, the relations between exports to the U.S. and imports from China should be a question policymakers have to solve to make Vietnam adaptive to the new normal in the making.

A good photo story needs deep personal views

By Vuong Anh

A photo of La Kim Tuyen taken by Thuy Tran

Some say photography is a way of delivering by means of photos one’s own messages. That is also what professional photographers would like to show to trainees in a photography workshop themed “Vietnamese Women” hosted by the Institute of France in Vietnam (IFV). Participants aged between 18 and 28 with basic knowledge of photography were welcomed to join the workshop. They were guided by three professional photographers, including Maika Elan, Binh Dang and Nicolas Cornet. Following is a mosaic constructed by the three photography mentors and three trainees under their mentorships.

Taking place in HCMC and Hue City in late January, the workshop offered a great chance for young photography enthusiasts to learn more about effective techniques for and the art of conveying one’s own messages through photo stories.

In this sense, several great photo stories have been born to the workshop. They are now displayed in HCMC until mid-April.

Maika Elan, mentor

As one of the mentors in the workshop, Ms. Elan likes the way her young trainees share their stories. Each person approaches and explains his/her stories differently. As Ms. Elan is a photographer who develops herself through workshops, she is able to understand clearly what such workshops can bring valuable experiences. She also expects the trainees to adopt open views of a topic. “For instance, the topic ‘Vietnamese Women’ comprises not only portraits of women but also photos depicting feelings you have when seeing the women around you, things and problems these women are facing in their life,” she says. A good photo essay is one that attracts viewers by its content, its look or even what it can go deep inside a viewer when watching it.

Binh Dang, mentor

Binh Dang says the young trainees have passion and are quite boldly in showing their ideas. Therefore, the workshop focuses on characters and stories, not only on photography techniques. It may also help trainees develop comparative thinking and how to work with their ideas.

Nicolas Cornet, mentor

Nicolas Cornet says because over the three decades he has been in touch with the Vietnamese society, he has come to realize that with “Doi Moi” (Economic Renovation), many more local women have taken charge of their own lives and have come up with relevant initiatives to innovate and create their own business. In daily life, Vietnamese women have shown a very strong resilience. The younger generation is the same, says Mr. Cornet. One of his trainees is a young female student who works hard to earn enough money for her studies and the passion for photography. “I admit that I admire them,” Cornet says. “I was happy that in a photography workshop, we could pay tribute to them.”

According to Mr. Cornet, his young trainees focus more on contemporary themes and forms, such as a reflection on gender, a family version on a grandmother, and the positions of women in everyday life. “I would say that young photographers are reinventing the theme, presenting it with new aspects that are broader and more interesting than the traditional aspects alone,” he says. Photography helps young Vietnamese approach diverse and vital aspects of their generation, which is a great quality of photography in the country.

Le Thi Mong Thu, trainee

Born in Hue City, Thu, a teacher by profession, has a special passion with photographer. When the workshop was launched, Thu realized that this was a wonderful chance for her to experience composing her own photo stories. As expected, during the workshop, she gained basic knowledge of photography which soon helped her create a photo essay by herself. She and other trainees exchanged their opinions and shared experience in having a great photo story. Moreover, she learned from the professional photographers how to recount her stories in a coherent way.

Thich Nu Lien Nha, a Buddhist nun, is the main character of Thu’s photo story in the workshop. The nun started to adopt orphans and children abandoned by their parents after she had seen a newborn left at the entrance of Hien Luong Pagoda. She now raises a total of seven kids. Although the nun has to play the role of both mother and father, which is really a burden, she feels happy when seeing her children growing to be good people.

In this photo, nun Thich Nu Lien Nha is pictured by Le THi Mong Thu

Le Dang Ngoc Bich, trainee

Le Dang Ngoc Bich is freelancer and studying MBA. She became passionate with photography a year ago, especially portraitures and photos of stages. Ms. Bich says she loves photography because it may catch the right moments. After the workshop, Ms. Bich learned how to work with her ideas effectively and, above all, found the way to tell messages in her photo stories. Talking about Maika Elan, Ms. Bich says her mentor was of great help. Ms. Elan’s comments helped Ms. Bich know her strengths and room for improvement, says the latter.

During the workshop, Ms. Bich worked on a photo story about a dancer. The dancer was selected to be a member of a dancing group because of her passion and enthusiasm for dancing. Initially, the dancer felt disappointed as she could not perform as well as other members and thus she was not chosen to perform on stage. But she did not give up. After eight years of practicing really hard, she has now become a professional dancer.

A photo of dancer Dung taken by Le Dang Ngoc Bich

Thuy Tran, trainee

Thuy Tran wants to talk about the people she loves and respects and those having their own stories which inspire her and others, helping her find her true self. To do this, Ms. Tran knows that she has to gain more skills, knowledge and experiences. Therefore, the workshop is a great chance for her to learn how to tell her own stories. Moreover, the topic of the workshop, “Vietnamese Women,” is a great source of inspiration to her. Ms. Tran was raised in a family where her dad could meet her for one month a year. Ms. Tran says she is always so proud of her mother because of what she has done for her. After the workshop, she is aware that a photographer has to spend much time researching their topics or characters to have a good photo essay.

The photo story that Thuy Tran made during the workshop is about La Kim Tuyen, who is a transgender person working at Saigon Tan Thoi (Modern Saigon) “loto” spectacle—a Vietnamese version of drag queen shows where trans people perform musical numbers, plays and comedy skits while drawing and calling out numbers for the bingo games. The reason why Ms. Tran chose these characters was that she often felt unlucky as she was born a female who suffered enormously from constraints and prejudices towards women. This inferiority complex was partly relieved when Ms. Tran knew about trans people who dared to “become” real women. The people had the femininity inside which helped them show their happiness. However, choosing to be themselves also required bravery and a trade-off between mental and physical pains.