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The Hanoitimes – Vietnam would be among four economies hardest hit by the Covid-19 outbreak, behind Singapore, Thailand and Hong Kong (China).

The Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) has forecast Vietnam’s GDP growth to slow to a 7-year low of 5.96% in 2020, indicating a less optimistic outlook compared to its assessment one week ago, local media reported.

Data: MPI. Chart: Ngoc Thuy.

Previously, the MPI predicted Vietnam’s GDP in 2020 to grow 6.09% in case the Covid-19 (nCoV) is contained by the end of the second quarter, representing a 0.7 percentage points lower than the target set by the National Assembly and nearly one percentage point compared to 2019.

The MPI suggested Vietnam would be among four economies hardest hit by the Covid-19 outbreak, behind Singapore, Thailand and Hong Kong (China).

The latest prediction of the MPI is similar to those of domestic economists.

Pham The Anh, chief economist at the Vietnam Institute for Economic and Policy Research (VEPR), told VnExpress that Vietnam’s economic growth is predicted to be shaved off by one percentage point, while ANZ predicted a decrease of 0.8 percentage points in the first quarter due to the epidemic.

The MPI also estimated Chinese arrivals coming to Vietnam would decline by 2.3 million if the outbreak is controlled by the end of the second quarter, while those from other countries are likely to decrease between 50% and 60%.

“As Chinese tourists spend an average of US$743.6 each, and international tourists of US$1,141, a loss of US$5 billion would be incurred if the epidemic persists to the end of June,” said the MPI in its report.

Preliminary assessment from the Vietnam Tourism Advisory Board (TAB) said the damage in the first quarter could be up to US$7 billion and exceed US$15 billion until the end of the second quarter.

With tourism under pressure from the outbreak, the aviation industry is set to face a similar fate. Before the epidemic, 11 Chinese airlines conducted 240 flights per week to Vietnam, while Vietnam Airlines, Jetstar Pacific and Vietjet operated 72 flight routes to 48 destinations in China with 401 flights per week.

In addition to tourism and aviation, Vietnam’s agricultural sector with high dependence on the Chinese market is facing numerous difficulties.

KB Securities said as consumption in China shrinks due to the outbreak, Chinese imports of goods and products from other countries would be set to decline. Meanwhile, China is Vietnam’s main export market for agricultural products as its imports Vietnamese goods worth nearly US$6 billion, accounting for 35% of Vietnam’s total exports of agricultural products.

In 2019, Vietnam recorded a trade deficit of nearly US$34 billion from China, importing largely phone and electronic parts, and input materials for textile and footwear production. With heavy dependence on input materials from China, Vietnam’s manufacture is set to face a major impact from the outbreak.

A survey conducted by the National Private Economic Development Research Board revealed many enterprises could maintain operation for one more week before running out of input materials.

Cash injection not an answer

Vietnam, however, is not the only country facing pessimistic outlook amid the outbreak of the Covid-19. On the global stage, many countries are using stimulus packages to mitigate the negative impacts. China has rolled out a US$174-billion bailout package, comprised of US$22-billion injection into Chinese markets to prevent the country’s stocks and currency from falling. Other countries also took a slew of measures to shore up their financial markets.

VEPR expert Pham The Anh said in case of Vietnam, monetary easing would not be feasible due to differences in the structure of economic growth.

A stimulus package would not boost the number of Chinese tourists coming to Vietnam, produce more agricultural goods or provide sufficient input materials for local enterprises, Anh added.

In addition, monetary easing would put upward pressure on inflation, which has been on the rise since the end of 2019 due to African swine fever.

Instead of using monetary policy, Anh said Vietnam should find ways to diversify revenues and pursue a more sustainable economic growth model.

Another solution is to waive visa for tourists from European countries and other important markets such as New Zealand, Canada, to relieve pressure from a decline in the number of Chinese tourists.

As many enterprises are facing difficulties, there should be more supports from the banking system and tax reduction for the business community.

Hanoi (VNA) – Hoa Phat Group plans to import 1.44 billion USD worth of commodities from Australia in 2021, more than doubling last year’s figure.

The imports will include around 4 million tonnes of iron ore, 3.5 million tonnes of coal of different types and 145,000 cows.

The group’s imports of machines, equipment, and materials for production reportedly hit nearly 2 billion USD last year. Of the total, some 35 percent, or 700 million USD, came from Australia , also over double the figure from 2019 and making the industrial manufacturer the largest Vietnamese client of the country.

More than half of the total import value, or 364 million USD, came from coal, compared to just 115 million USD in 2019.

The group’s purchases of iron ore leapt a whopping 19-times to 123 million USD in the first eleven months of 2020.

Hoa Phat bought more coal and iron ore last year to serve production at its iron and steel integrated complexes in the northern province of Hai Duong and the central province of Quang Ngai’s Dung Quat Economic Zone.

Meanwhile, it annually purchases hundreds of thousands of cows from Australia, with its herd accounting for 50 percent of all Australian-imported cows in Vietnam .

With such soaring import numbers, Hoa Phat was estimated to account for 17 percent of Australia’s total export value to Vietnam in 2020, compared to 7.4 percent in 2018 and 7.6 percent in 2019.

According to Global Trade Atlas, Australia’s exports to Vietnam reached 4.4 billion USD in 2020, 16 percent of which was imported by Hoa Phat.

Last year, the group’s exports exceeded 1 billion USD, including 966 million USD worth of high-quality and construction steel./.

VNA

Innovation in Vietnam’s e-commerce industry this year will focus primarily on payments, logistics, and digital technology.

The Hanoitimes – Nowadays, in a modern world, many traditional crafts have disappeared but still remained artisans who are trying to keep the tradition in every corner of Hanoi’s Old Quarter, helping ensure that the past is not forgotten but preserved as evidence of a city with history of thousands of years.

Once known as the street specialized in supplying high quality metal forging utensils in Hanoi, Lo Ren street (Street of the Blacksmith) now has only one workshop that keeps furnace burning.

The best shopping places in Hanoi’s Old Quarter can be found along narrow alleyways close to Hoan Kiem lake, where you can find retailers that have managed to retain their particular trades for generations.

In the memories of Hanoians, the Old Quarter is not only the representation of Hanoi’s cultural values, but also the concentration of many old trades that were once part of the routine in the capital city.

Nowadays, in a modern world, many tradition crafts have disappeared but there remain artisans who are trying to keep the tradition going in every corner of the Old Quarter, which helps ensure that the past is not forgotten but preserved as evidence of a city with history of thousands of years.

Located on the corner of Hang Dong – Lo Ren street, Hoan Kiem district, a 60-year-old blacksmith is still hammering metal in front of a fiery furnace which lights a street corner.

This is Mr. Nguyen Van Hung, who is preserving the metal-smith tradition left by his father.

Blacksmithing is the craft of working with soot, grease and heavy hammers.

Mr. Hung said that this shop was passed on to his father by his grandfather and now it is his turn to take over.

”My grandfather moved from Nam Tu Liem district to settle down in Lo Ren street with his profession,” said Mr. Hung.

He added that his family’s shop was located down the street for only a few hundred meters but there were dozens of blacksmith shops. In its heyday, Lo Ren street was lit up and kept warm by the flame all year round and noisy with the harsh sound of the hammer.

In sunny or rainy weather, the fire is always burning. Currently, the item he usually makes is tools for concrete chisels.

The most important items of blacksmithing are anvils and hammers.

Especially, Mr. Hung is the only blacksmith left in the street.

”I remain forging not only for earning a living, I want to “keep the fire” for the whole street of Lo Ren. I will be practicing the profession to the last breath. I am proud of that, although this profession is so hard. But most importantly, I myself can live on it with my own passion,” Mr. Hung said.

Products made by Mr. Hung every day.

Over the years, Mr. Hung has not found a disciple who is dedicated to pass on his valuable experiences.

”There are also many people who want to learn the job, but they give up after only a few days. Now that I’m 60 years old, I can’t be doing the job any longer. By the time I stop hammering, blacksmith would remain just… the name of a street ” said Mr. Hung.