The American based football statistics site ran a risk analysis using Monte Carlo – a computational algorithm that relies on repeated random sampling to obtain numerical results – of the second qualifying rounds of the 2022 World Cup qualifiers and concluded that the chances of Vietnam entering the final qualifying round is 99.2 percent.
In addition to the five teams – Australia, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Japan and South Korea – that have secured their slots in the Asian qualifying rounds, Vietnam’s chances of advancing to third stage of World Cup qualifying rounds are behind Iraq (99.92 percent) and Oman (99.4).
The other teams that still have a chance to qualify for the final qualifiers are China with 99 percent, Iran (82.68), UAE (76.96), Lebanon (64.08), Uzbekistan (56.28), Jordan (13.24) , Tajikistan (8.72) and Kyrgyzstan (0.52).
Host Qatar, the top teams of seven groups and the top five runners-up will advance to the final qualifiers, according to the tournament format.
Vietnam are at the top of Group G in the second qualifying round with 17 points, two more than the host UAE. The team will enter the third stage as the leader of group G if they do not lose to the UAE on June 15.
If Vietnam lose to the UAE, they still have a great opportunity to continue in the group as top five runners-up. Currently, the team are almost certain to score higher than the two second-place opponents, Kyrgyz Republic in group F and Lebanon in group H, each having 10 points.
Vietnam have never entered the final qualifying round of the World Cup – where 12 teams are divided into two groups of six teams each. Teams will play in a round-robin two-legged round to find the top two teams from each group to advance to the 2022 World Cup finals in Qatar.
The two third-placed teams in each group will face off against each other to earn their slot.
The third qualifying round will be played from September 2-March 29.
The second qualifying round of the 2022 World Cup in Asia is also the second qualifying round of the 2023 Asian Cup. The eight group winners and four runners-up with high achievements will win a place in the 2023 Asian Cup finals without having to play third qualifying round.
The chance for Vietnam to directly enter the Asian Cup finals is 92.2 percent, according to We Global.