Southeast Asia’s economic growth will rebound to 6.2 per cent in 2021 with Vietnam achieving 8 per cent growth, according to the latest economic outlook report from Oxford Economics commissioned by chartered accountancy body ICAEW. GDP across the region contract by 4.1 per cent in 2020, with countries that had been successful in controlling the pandemic like Việt Nam and Singapore leading the recovery. Indeed, Vietnam was expected to be the only economy to record positive growth in 2020. The rebound was in part due to the low-base effect of 2020, but policies were set to remain very accommodative with extensive fiscal support and low interest rates. Prolonged lockdowns and social distancing measures in the region were forecast to cap global GDP growth in 2021, making it unlikely that a return to pre-COVID GDP and trade activity would take place before late 2021. In Southeast Asia, growth would likely be constrained by social distancing measures, but restrictions would continue to be eased over this year, especially in economies that would be able to roll out vaccines relatively quickly. An economic rebound in 2021 remained contingent on the easing of lockdown restrictions, global recovery momentum and the successful roll-out of vaccines. Progress on vaccination would be an important barometer for growth, with services likely to catch… Read full this story
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