It said in a report the sales of combustion engine cars are set to drop even faster by around 23 per cent this year. The electric models are seen accounting for 3 per cent of global car sales in 2020, rising to 7 per cent in 2023 at some 5.4 million units.
Colin McKerracher, head of advanced transport at BNEF, said the Covid-19 pandemic is set to cause a major downturn in global auto sales in 2020 and although the long-term trajectory has not changed much the market will be bumpy for the next three years.
The report “Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook” projects electric models accounting for 58 per cent of new passenger car sales globally by 2040 and 31 per cent of the whole car fleet. Electric vehicles of all types are seen adding 5.2 per cent to global electricity demand by 2040.
BNEF said that the figures have major implications for oil and electricity markets as transport electrification, particularly in the form of two-wheelers is already taking out almost 1 million barrels of oil demand per day and by 2040 it will take around 17.6 million barrels per day.
BNEF added that it sees more than a short-term effect as lockdowns ease, instead there is likely to be a lasting reduction in ridership of municipal bus and metro services and more traffic congestion in cities. Shared mobility operators have suffered, but will rebound quickly on the back of food delivery, logistics and micro-mobility services, it said.
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