Ducey faces a choice with enduring consequences after McCain announces treatment decision

News that U.S. Sen. John McCain will stop treatment for a deadly form of brain cancer has revived speculation about whom Gov. Ducey would choose to appoint in his place.

It also has heightened the already searing level of scrutiny the governor faces as he tries to advance his re-election bid this fall. 

McCain’s resignation or death while in office would compel the Arizona governor to fill a Senate seat by appointment for the first time in the state’s 106-year history.

Given the high-profile struggles playing out in Washington, D.C. — from the pending confirmation of Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh to the growing calls to indict and impeach the president — Ducey’s choice could have enduring consequences.

McCain’s successor must be a Republican, as McCain is, and would serve at least until the 2020 general election.

MORE: Who could be appointed to John McCain’s Senate seat?

Beyond those stipulations, the governor would have broad discretion.

Ducey publicly ruled out appointing himself after the senator’s glioblastoma diagnosis in July 2017. In the year since, Ducey has declined to comment on potential candidates, with his staff rebuffing questions as “disgraceful” while McCain was still serving.

It was not immediately clear whether the McCain family’s announcement changed or accelerated any of the governor’s plans Friday. After the update was released, Ducey issued a statement calling McCain an “American hero” who always put the country before himself.

“From Vietnam to the halls of the U.S. Senate, the spirit of service and civility that has guided Senator McCain’s life stands as a model for all Americans, regardless of political affiliation,” the statement said.

“(My wife) Angela and I had the great privilege of visiting with Senator McCain and Cindy in May. Then and now, our prayers and our hearts are with them and their entire family.”

A spokesman said the Governor’s Office could not offer any information beyond what Ducey had said in his statement.

RELATED: As John McCain ends cancer treatment, will ‘maverick’ be his legacy?

‘Great confidence’

The McCain family’s update came four days before the Arizona primary election.

Ducey, who is seeking re-election, is expected to nab the Republican nomination easily Tuesday.

But after the #RedForEd teacher walkout raised doubts about his dedication to public education — and after contentious Trump-administration decisions electrified Democrats nationwide — analysts say Ducey is on shakier ground for the Nov. 6 general election. 

“Electorally, I don’t think that this (appointment issue) affects him one way or another,” longtime Republican strategist Chuck Coughlin said Friday, noting that it could be weeks before the mourning period passes and the time for an appointment comes.

“I think he’ll do the right thing and get through it, and will do something John would be happy with,” he said.

Coughlin mentioned Ducey’s personal visit with the McCain family, saying the governor has “rightly kept (the details) very close to his chest.”

“If there’s a desire to have some family member fulfill the term, I imagine (Ducey) would be OK with it,” he said. “If he makes a pick of somebody else, it’s going to be a conservative Republican who, I would think, he would have great confidence in. So, I don’t think there’s going to be any impact.”

RELATED: How to replace John McCain? Here’s how the process works

Jennifer Duffy, who analyzes governor’s races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, agreed that making an appointment is now “much less risky” for Ducey than it would have been before May 30.

If McCain had resigned before then, voters would have decided how to fill his seat in November, along with that of outgoing Republican Sen. Jeff Flake.

It’s unclear at this point whether the governor would select a ”caretaker” replacement or someone with aspirations to hold the seat long-term, according to Duffy, who said one “could argue the pros and cons there for a few hours.”

Asked about the impact of a long-term appointment on Ducey’s legacy, Coughlin said, ”I think it’s probably premature to think about that.”

‘Serving the people of Arizona’

McCain’s seat already has played a role in this year’s gubernatorial election, with Ducey declining to debate primary challenger Ken Bennett after Bennett said he would not appoint Cindy McCain to her husband’s post if elected.

Ducey called Bennett’s remarks “indecent” and “embarrassing.”

The two did appear together during an interview with The Republic‘s editorial board, where they again sparred over Bennett’s comments about the McCain seat.

Asked Friday whether he had thought further about candidates beyond Cindy McCain, Bennett said, “No, no.”

“All I’m thinking about right now is sending our thoughts our prayers to John, Cindy and their family,” he said.

At a July primary debate hosted by The Arizona Republic and Arizona PBS, the three Democrats seeking the governor’s seat said McCain should keep his Senate position for as long as he deems appropriate.

State Sen. Steve Farley, YWCA leader Kelly Fryer and educator David Garcia declined to name names when asked if they had considered appointment possibilities but said McCain’s successor should be “someone who believes more strongly in serving the people of Arizona than serving a particular party.”

For months, the candidates have worked to paint Ducey as someone who cares more about Republican talking points and party elites than the average Arizona family.

The governor has been polling low for an incumbent this year but has a history of outperforming such indicators.

Republic reporter Mary Jo Pitzl contributed to this article.

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