The world leading independent economic research company forecast that Vietnam may face risks in 2017 from a 20% private credit boom and low export (only 7.5% in the first 11 months in comparison with the average rate of 12-14% in the 2000-2016 period). Meanwhile, Credit Suisse experts projected that incomplete TPP would cause negative impacts on Vietnam.
Nevertheless, both Capital Economics and Credit Suisse said that in 2017, Viet Nam would maintain solid foundation. Capital Economics forecast a GDP growth at around 7%. Meanwhile, Credit Suisse predicted that the country’s GDP would expand 6.2%. Earlier, both ADB and WB were more upbeat about Viet Nam’s economic prospects with GDP growth rate of 6.3% in 2017.
The Vietnamese economy has shown resilience in the face of global headwinds, an Australian economist wrote in a recent article. The article was posted on the East Asia Forum by Suiwah Dean-Leung – Honorary Associate Professor of Economics at the Crawford School of Public Policy, at the Australian National University
It says Vietnam’s GDP growth is projected by the World Bank to be around 6% for 2016 — higher than the large ASEAN economies of Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. This growth has been bolstered mainly by robust domestic demand and strong performance in manufacturing exports.
Retail sales rose by 9.5% during the year, indicating a healthy degree of consumer confidence supported by hikes in public sector wages as well as increases in incomes generally. Meanwhile, the purchasing managers’ index rose to 54 in November from 51.7 in October — any number above 50 signals an expansion in manufacturing output
Core inflation is low and headline inflation is at 4.9% on a year-on-year basis for 2016, mainly due to increases in administered prices for education and health. The Vietnamese dong remained reasonably steady against the US dollar for much of the year, and foreign reserves rose steadily, according to the article.
However, cutbacks in oil production, weak external demand and falls in agricultural output due to drought have prevented economic growth from reaching the government’s earlier target of 6.5 to 6.8% for 2016. Dean-Leung wrote that Vietnam’s economic outlook is mixed, as rising global economic uncertainty challenges Hanoi’s commitment to necessary medium-term structural reforms.
For the time being, Vietnam is maintaining macroeconomic stability as it will certainly face significant challenges such as increased uncertainties over international trade and investment, especially given the moribund status of trade agreements like the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the professor added.