More evidence that President Obama is in electoral trouble
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Economic forecasts could prove a problem for Obama’s re-election bid
President Barack Obama embraced gay marriage this week, but another problem emerged for his re-election effort — state by state economic forecasts.
A study of traditionally democratic states shows that the economic problems in these states may lead voters to reject the President on Election Day in November.
In closely divided states, the news is also bad for President Obama.
The marriage issue may complicate Obama’s efforts for a second term as President of the United States, yet economic issues may be impossible for Obama to overcome.
John Merline at Investor’s Business Daily writes that ‘when it comes to the economic recovery, there has been a clear difference.
It turns out that blue states (traditionally Democratic states) have done worse economically than have red states (traditionally Republican states) under President Obama.’
Merline found that the the states that voted for Obama are doing worse than states that voted for McCain in the last election.
More from Merline, ‘IBD compared average job growth, unemployment, changes in housing prices, per capita income and GDP growth, and gas prices for the 22 states that voted for John McCain in 2008 and the 28 states that voted for Obama. On every indicator but one, blue states have done worse, on average, than red states.’
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It is going to be hard for President Obama to tout an economic recovery under his leadership if these numbers don’t change dramatically by election day.
Obama also did not fare well in swing states that will be closely divided this fall.
Figures: Mr Obama’s bid for the White House could be denied by voters concerned at economic problems in states
‘In addition, IBD looked at the economic performance of 11 states that Real Clear Politics lists as tossups for the 2012 presidential election.
‘Many of these purple battleground states have fared far worse than the country as a whole during the past three years.’
The election is going to come down to whether Republicans or Democrats win the closely divided swing states and Obama is in deep trouble today.
Merline found the following:
- Job growth: The average increase for blue states was just 1.2% from June 2009 — the official start of the economic recovery — to March 2012. For red states, it was 1.9%. The national average was 1.8%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Unemployment: The jobless rate in March was 8.5% in blue states and 7.4% in red states, BLS data show.
- Income: Blue states also did a bit worse when it came to per cap ita personal pay, rising 4.27% in 2011 compared with 4.35% in red states, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis data.
- GDP: The one measure where blue states outperformed was in gross domestic product growth, clocking an average 2.5% increase from 2009 to 2010 vs. red states’ 2.2%. State GDP figures for 2011 won’t come out until June.
- Home prices: People living in liberal areas suffered the most when it came to housing prices. Over the past year, the housing price index fell 3.5% in blue states.
The index edged up by 0.03% in conservative states. Nationwide, it was down 2.4%, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s House Price Index. Over the past five years, housing prices in red states fell 7.5%, but by 18.5% in blue states.
More from Brian Darling for the Daily Mail…
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Recent polling data provides further evidence that President Obama is in trouble.
Real Clear Politics has President Obama up by an average of 1.5%, yet he can’t seem to break 50% in this average of national polls.
An incumbent President should be much higher in the polls this early in a campaign.
Rasmussen polling has the President at only 45% versus former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney at 49%. Current polling data is not all that friendly to the idea of a second term for President Obama.
Furthermore, the President’s surprise announcement that he supports gay marriage is expected to hurt him.
Swing state North Carolina just voted 61% to 39% for traditional marriage, becoming the 31st state where voters have voted for marriage to be between one man and one woman.
In every single state where there has been a vote on the issue of traditional marriage, it has passed. This issue is politically damaging to Obama.
Clearly, the economy is the primary issue voters will judge whether President Obama deserves as second term, yet the marriage issue may motivate socially conservative voters to help defeat Obama.
The President is in deep electoral trouble right now.
There is a long way to go before election day and things may change.
Yet there are some dangers signs on the economy and social issues that will make it difficult for President Obama to garner enough support to win this fall.
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